Former Tampa Bay Rays Arm, A's Bullpen Hopeful, Seems to Have Added Velocity

May 31, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Justin Sterner (65) throws a sixth inning pitch against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images | Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

When a player that has yet to establish themselves in the big leagues heads to a new team during the offseason, it's important to look and see what they may be doing differently to discern if said player may be in for more success in the coming season than in previous years.

At the beginning of November the Athletics claimed right-handed relief pitcher Justin Sterner off waivers from the Tampa Bay Rays, in a move that appeared to be the A's taking a shot on someone that they may be able to provide more of an opportunity to.

While that may still be the case, Sterner is seemingly doing things a little differently so far this spring, which could lead to a longer stint in the big leagues in West Sacramento.

Before we get into this, it's important to note that all of the numbers we're talking about were accumulated over small sample sizes, but with pitchers in particular, quick jumps can be a little more indicative of something real.

Last season, Sterner began the year in Triple-A Durham, and on March 31 against the Norfolk Tides, he was averaging 93.7 miles per hour on his four-seamer, hitting as high as 94.4 mph on the radar gun. By the end of the year he was averaging 92.6 mph, while touching 94.3.

In yesterday's game against the Texas Rangers, Sterner's five heaters were clocked at an average of 95.4, topping out at 96.2. Again, the sample size is small, but that's a real jump in velocity from year to year. Two ticks is nothing to sneeze at. The question here will obviously be if it's sustainable over the course of the season, and what kind of an impact that will have on his performance.

That is a question that will take some time to figure out.

The other notable change for the 28-year-old was how he mixed his pitches on Wednesday. Again, it's spring training and this is a sample of exactly one outing, but he was utilizing his cutter (50%) more than his four-seamer (36%), while the heater was used 64% of the time in the big leagues last year, with the cutter being used 34% of the time.

Guys also tend to work on things in camp, so he could just be searching for his cutter in the early days of camp.

The rest of the pitch mix in both instances was his seldom-used sweeper, which also seems to have jumped up in velocity. The two he threw yesterday were 3.5 miles per hour harder than the one he threw with the Rays last season.

So far this spring, Sterner has appeared in four games, totaling 3.1 scoreless innings pitched, with a 1.20 WHIP. He has given up four hits, one unearned run, and struck out three.

If Sterner continues to utilize the cutter more than his four-seamer, that could lead to better results, too. In his four innings of work with Tampa Bay, Sterner's cutter was a plus pitch, earning +2 in Run Value with an opponent's batting average of .125, and an expected batting average (xBA) of .107.

By comparison, his four-seamer had a .500 batting average against, with a .238 xBA.

In the minors last season, he finished with a 3.28 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP across 46.2 innings. He also tacked on a 31.4% strikeout rate with an 8.9% walk rate, giving him a K-BB% of 22.5%. Granted, his FIP was 4.30, but he seems to have some intriguing tools that the A's may be looking to deploy this season.

To get really nerdy, his Stuff+ came in at a 107 across his four big-league innings, while his Location+ was a 106, giving him a Pitching+ total of 112. His fastball, in terms of just his Stuff+ metric, was a top-20 heater in baseball, comparable to Mason Miller's. Again, not by velocity, but in terms of stuff (movement, drop, deceptiveness).

When putting up Sterner's Pitching+ number against A's pitchers from last season, it's pretty close to what Lucas Erceg did over his 36.2 innings with the Athletics, putting up a 113. Erceg also had a Stuff+ of 112 and a Location+ of 103.

There is a chance that Sterner gets a chance in the A's bullpen to begin the season, especially with Dylan Floro still not quite ready to make his Cactus League debut.

If Floro were to miss the beginning of the season, or start the year in Triple-A, then the final spot in the bullpen could go to Hogan Harris or Jacob Lopez, left-handers that could serve as long-men, or someone like Sterner, who is already on the 40-man roster.