Blue Jays Struggling Closer May Be Victim of Bad Stat Luck Amid Horrific Start

The Toronto Blue Jays have gotten off to a rough start in the defense of their American League pennant this season, sitting multiple games below .500 and seeing some real struggles.

Injuries have obviously been a part of the equation, but they do not tell the full story of why things have gone so poorly. Performance can be blamed, and many have pointed to the bullpen as an area that needs to be looked at.

With Jeff Hoffman being removed from the closer role at the end of April, he has been one of the scapegoats of the season due to his horrific starts. According to the advanced numbers though, his unsightly stats may be just as much due to poor luck as poor execution.

Hoffman Has Had Poor Luck for Blue Jays This Year

Toronto Blue Jays relief pitcher Jeff Hoffman throwing ball from right han — Toronto Blue Jays relief pitcher Jeff Hoffman | Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images

In a recent article from Kerry Miller of Bleacher Report, he pointed out how while Toronto's bullpen has not gotten the results, it actually on paper has been one of the best in all of baseball, and Hoffman in particuar has gotten the short end of the stick.

With a staggeringly high .529 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) following five straight seasons living below the .300 mark, Hoffman's fortunes are due to turn around sooner rather than later as he strikes batters out at the highest rate of his career.

Though this may or may not mean he earns the closer role back, Hoffman is clearly capable of helping this team wins, and if things do start to turn around for him in some advanced statistical categories largely based on luck, Toronto fans will start to see better results.

Hoffman is Trending in Right Direction for Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays manager John Schneider in blue sweatshir — Toronto Blue Jays manager John Schneider | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

In three of his four appearances since being moved from the closer role, Hoffman has been blemish free, and he does look more comfortable and confidence than he did a couple of weeks ago. Though the 6.14 ERA and 1.84 WHIP are not pretty, the 28 strikeouts in 14.2 innings certainly are.

Hoffman is a guy who has produced in this league for a long time, and whether he is the team's closer or not, the best version of him can absolutely be a massive piece of a bullpen that was so huge to the success of last October.

Toronto fans should be watching Hoffman closely over the coming months, because chances are things might be about to turn around for him.

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