How a Dangerous Contact Pattern Is Threatening Kevin Gausman's Season
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Kevin Gausman doesn't need to be reminded what it feels like to dominate a plate appearance.
He still does.
The Toronto Blue Jays right-hander continues to generate whiffs, maintains a frontline starter's strikeout rate, and still possesses one of baseball's premier put-away pitches in his splitter. The problem comes when he can't put hitters away.
When opponents do put the ball in play, the price of those mistakes has become significantly steeper. Tuesday's outing against the Tampa Bay Rays offered a perfect example. Gausman needed 38 pitches to get through the first inning and 44 just to navigate the Rays' lineup once. He ultimately allowed five runs (four earned) in only 3.1 innings, but the damage had begun long before the final line was written.
By the time he exited, the game was already out of reach. The Rays tacked on seven more runs against Toronto's bullpen and finished with 21 hits, earning their seventh win in eight meetings with the Blue Jays this season.
The Difference Is the Type of Contact, Not the Amount
For years, Gausman has built his success around a simple concept: make hitters miss. His four-seam fastball sets everything up, and his splitter serves as the finishing weapon. That combination allowed him to survive even when he made the occasional mistake because most hitters couldn't consistently turn those mistakes into damaging contact.
That balance has shifted this season. The clearest indicator is Pull%, which measures how often hitters pull the ball.
In 2025, Gausman ranked in the 32nd percentile across Major League Baseball. This season, he has climbed to the 63rd percentile. The significance of that jump lies in the opportunities it has created for opposing hitters.
Metric | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|
Pull AIR % (Percentil) | 32 | 63 |
Pulled-LHB | .679 | 1.000 |
Pulled-RHB | 1.063 | 1.390 |
Pulled-HR% | 5.5% | 9.9% |
The problem is easy to spot: Gausman's Pulled-HR% allowed has nearly doubled compared to last season. Both left-handed and right-handed hitters are producing better results against him, and perhaps most importantly, his whiff rate and in-zone contact profile remain remarkably similar to previous years.
His Whiff% has actually improved from the 59th percentile to the 70th, while his strikeout rate remains a healthy 24.7%. One of the things I've always admired about Gausman is how effectively he survives with just three pitches. On paper, the quality of his arsenal is still evident, but throughout the season, that track record has increasingly been overshadowed by stretches of inconsistency.
Toronto Needs Gausman to Regain Control of Plate Appearances
The good news for the Blue Jays is that there is no indication Gausman has completely lost his stuff. His four-seam fastball remains one of his most effective weapons, and his splitter is still capable of generating plenty of swings and misses. The problem lies in the at-bats that never get there.
These numbers might surprise you: Gausman is posting his highest first-pitch-behind rate (33.4%) over the past five seasons. The growing number of plate appearances in which hitters gain an early strategic advantage has led to his worst OPS allowed in those situations since 2021.
Tuesday's start reflected something even more concerning. Gausman got 11 hitters to two strikes, yet five of them still reached base. The Rays strung together quality at-bats. They collected nine hits—eight of them singles—but that was more than enough to secure the victory.
The Blue Jays' problems extend well beyond Kevin Gausman, but it's difficult to envision a turnaround without a better version of one of the leaders of their rotation. Gausman's arsenal still gives the Blue Jays every reason to believe a turnaround is possible. But with the second half underway and Toronto already chasing ground in the AL East, that margin for error is disappearing.
If the Blue Jays are going to make a legitimate push for October, they'll need the version of Gausman who doesn't just miss bats—he limits the damage when he doesn't.
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Yirsandy is a baseball writer specializing in MLB coverage with experience across multiple teams and storylines. He currently writes for Diamond Centric, where he covers the New York Mets, San Diego Padres, Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers, and Kansas City Royals. My work focuses on game coverage, player analysis, and storytelling that connects performance with context. My Substack has also been an important part of my writing development, where I’ve built much of my baseball coverage and storytelling voice over time. I’m passionate about combining reporting, research, and thoughtful analysis to produce engaging baseball content for readers.
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