Blue Jays' Next Two Months to Determine Whether They Keep Their Ace

With just a year and a half left on his deal, how bad of shape would Toronto need to be in to deal their ace?

May 15, 2025; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Kevin Gausman (34) is taken out of the game during the sixth inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Rogers Centre. | Kevin Sousa-Imagn Images

When the Toronto Blue Jays gave first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. a 14-year, $500 million contract, they made the decision that for the next seven to ten years they were going to at least try to be competitive and aim to make the postseason.

At 26 years old, Guerrero Jr.'s prime will be too good and too long into the future to aim for anything else.

When Guerrero Jr. was publicly displeased with his situation in Toronto, trade rumors ran rampant, but nothing came of it. Those trade rumors then started to percolate to other prominent players on the team, notably Bo Bichette, but he's standing pat too for the time being.

Bichette, 27, is an unrestricted free agent after this year and trade talks could easily resurface depending on where the Blue Jays stand by the July 31 deadline. He's slashing .270/.319/.391 on the season with 25 RBIs.

But Bichette isn't the only prominent name that could makes sense to ship off.

How Long Will Kevin Gausman Remain with Blue Jays?

May 9, 2025; Seattle, Washington, USA; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Kevin Gausman (34) exits during the sixth inning against the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park. | John Froschauer-Imagn Images

Kevin Gausman will make $23 million in 2025 at 34 years old. He's set to become an unrestricted free agent after the 2026 season. He's had an ERA below 4.00 and a WHIP below 1.30 every year he's been with Toronto since joining the team in 2022.

Even if Toronto were to trade or not pay Bichette, Guerrero Jr.'s contract would likely make extending Gausman beyond 2026, when he'll be 35 going on 36, an unlikely outcome. Because the extension was so long, it puts less pressure on the Blue Jays' efforts to win over the next two or three years, meaning they don't have to hedge financial flexibility in the future.

It would make a lot of sense for Toronto to trade Gausman now to regain value rather than have him walk away for nothing. But how bad would the Blue Jays have to be to justify trading away such a prominent arm? It's hard to say.

Toronto is not in a position to compete for the American League East title this season — no one really is, outside of the New York Yankees. The only way the Blue Jays could justify keeping him would be if they felt confident about their aspirations for a wild card spot.

Toronto is currently three games behind the last spot, with four teams ahead of them. It could be hard justifying having Gausman around for the entirety of this year, given how little time he has remaining on his contract.