Is Former All-Star's Shocking Rebound With Toronto Blue Jays Sustainable?
In this story:
Chris Bassitt's Toronto Blue Jays tenure has been quite the rollercoaster.
Signed to a three-year, $63 million deal following a strong 2022 campaign witht the New York Mets, Bassitt immediately delivered. The veteran right-hander was exceptional in his first season with the Blue Jays, going 16-8 with a 3.60 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP and 2.7 WAR over 200 innings and helping Toronto make the playoffs.
His performance regressed along with the team's in 2024, however, as he endured one of the worst seasons of his career. Bassitt slipped to 10-14 with a 4.16 ERA, a 1.46 WHIP and -0.1 WAR in 171 innings.
Entering the final year of his deal, fans weren't sure what to expect from the 36-year-old former All-Star. Would he bounce back, stay the same or continue to decline?
Few could have foreseen his incredible start to 2025, which has been one of the best stretches his career.
After racking up 10 strikeouts over five shutout innings in his most recent outing against the Atlanta Braves, Bassitt owns the lowest ERA (0.77) and FIP (0.98) in MLB. He's also 2-0 with 31 strikeouts in 23.1 innings and an AL-best 1.4 pitching WAR despite facing four tough lineups in his first four starts.
Chris Bassitt through 4 starts:
— Underdog MLB (@UnderdogMLB) April 16, 2025
23.1 IP
31 K
0.77 ERA
1.07 WHIPpic.twitter.com/idLcBvHNLx
What's changed for Bassitt?
For starters, his command has been much better. His 1.9 BB/9 rate and 12.0 K/9 rate are both the best marks of his career, so he hasn't been afraid to go after hitters and attack the strike zone. His 64.5% first-strike rate is the highest of his career, so he's getting himself into more pitcher's counts.
According to Statcast, his batted ball data has barely changed from last year. His pitch mix is also roughly the same, and he's actually succeeding despite a slight decrease in velocity.
The biggest key for him has been locating his pitches well and getting a bit more movement on them, which is fooling batters. Hitters are chasing more of his pitches outside the zone than ever before (31.3% swing percentage), and they're swinging more inside the zone as well. His 49.2% swing rate is the highest of his career, perhaps due to his slightly diminished velocity.
Opponents are swinging more but making less contact. His 72.3% contact rate and 13.6% swinging strike rate are both personal bests.
Bassitt is missing more bats than ever before, but that probably isn't sustainable with his diminished velocity. He's made adjustments to deal with that, but it's likely only a matter of time until hitters catch on and make their own adjustments.
Accordingly, don't expect Bassitt to keep this up all season. He's a good pitcher who can still outsmart and deceive hitters (even with diminished stuff), but he's not this good.
He may earn another All-Star appearance with a strong first half, but don't start engraving his Cy Young trophy just yet.
That said, Bassitt will look to keep rolling in his next start against the Houston Astros on the road early next week. The Astros' offense has been one of the worst in baseball this year after losing Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, so don't be surprised if he turns in another gem.
