Predicted Arbitration Amounts for Eight Blue Jays Players This Offseason
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The offseason strategy for a baseball team always has to be focused on what an organization actually has to spend to address obvious holes in the roster. That said, the Toronto Blue Jays will have more than $100 million off their books with departing free agents and now need an educated guess as to what arbitration will look like.
For those who don't know, arbitration is the time period in which negotiations happen for a player's contract who has a minimum of three years in the majors, but fewer than six, as they haven't become a free agent just yet.
MLB Trade Rumors has been using Matt Swartz's model for a decade that helps predict what an arbitration contract will look like for players, and insider Darragh McDonald shared what this year's looks like for all 30 teams, specifically the Blue Jays' eight.
- Ernie Clement: $7.6 million
- Jose Soriano: $5.6 million
- Louis Varland: $3.8 million
- Josh Smith: $3.7 million
- Nathan Lukes: $2.1 million
- Spencer Arrighetti: $1.9 million
- Bowden Francis: $1.3 million
- Davis Schneider: $1.3 million
Louis Varland finishes the season leading the league in ERA pic.twitter.com/GBl0CZSi04
— MLB on Real (@MLBonReal) September 27, 2026
This list is split half and half between the pitching staff and position players, but it seems like the pitchers are going to be signed for a steal if this is truly how things end up playing out, especially closer Louis Varland.
If Arbitration Plays Out This Way, Who Is Being Over/Under Paid?
The bullpen was easily the best piece of the Blue Jays' roster as they were the most elite and consistent down the stretch, which was highlighted by an elite season from closer Louis Varland, who is now projected to make a couple hundred thousand shy of $4 million in 2027.
Varland is extremely undervalued at that price when taking into consideration that David Bednar made over $9 million in 2026. It seemed that it was an automatic win if Varland took the mound, and more often than not, that was the case.
On the other side of the spectrum is utility man Ernie Clement, who started the season with an historic campaign that led to his first All-Star selection. However, his 250-point OPS drop-off from the first to the second half is a definite cause for concern.
In 2026, Clement made $4.6 million, so a three-million-dollar jump is seemingly not realistic with how he performed in the final months of the season amidst a playoff race.
Toronto does not want to face the same fate in 2027: last place and a losing record. So, Ross Atkins needs to be aggressive in the coming months, and knowing what the front office is spending in arbitration is a key piece of that puzzle.
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Maddy Dickens resides in Loveland, Colorado. She grew up with two older brothers, where their lives revolved around sports. She earned a master's degree in business management from Tarleton State University while simultaneously playing basketball and competing in rodeo at the collegiate level. She successfully parlayed a reserve national championship into a professional rodeo career and now stays involved in upper-level athletics by writing for On SI on several different MLB teams' pages, along with some NCAA sites.