Daily Dinger: Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks Today (Target Kyle Schwarber, Drake Baldwin in Game 3)

Will there be a new postseason hero on Thursday?

The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves face off in Game 3 of the wild card round, with the winner set to advance to the NLDS.

Home runs have been the story of this series, as Austin Riley’s three-run blast in the bottom of the eighth in Game 1 led the Braves to a win and three Philadelphia solo shots (from Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper and Alec Bohm) powered them to a win in 10 innings in Game 2.

So, will we see another clutch homer in this winner-take-all matchup?

Betting on home runs is a fun way to get involved in the MLB action each day, and the SI Betting team shares our favorite home run props to help bettors nail down a long shot bet. On Wednesday, Luis Garcia Jr. (+493) homered in the New York Yankees-Boston Red Sox matchup, cashing one of the three props I gave out.

Now, the focus turns to one game with a spot in the NLDS on the line.

Here’s a look at one player from each team that I believe is worth a look in this market.

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks for Thursday, Oct. 1

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Neither team has announced a starter pitching yet, but it appears that Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Ray Kerr and Grant Holmes are all options to pitch, which helped inform these home run picks.

Drake Baldwin to Hit a Home Run (+690)

Braves catcher/designated hitter Drake Baldwin picked up two hits and a run batted in on Wednesday, and he could be in line for another big game against Aaron Nola (if he starts) in Game 3.

The 25-year-old is 5-for-11 (.455) against Nola in his career, with a .955 OPS. He’s driven in one run against the Phillies veteran, and Nola has struggled quite a bit with the long ball this season, allowing 37 in 33 starts during the regular season.

Even if Nola doesn’t last long into this game, the Braves offense took him deep twice in a game in September, and the Phils may not be able to pull him before he inevitably allows another dinger.

During the regular season, Baldwin hit .284 overall and .307 with 18 of his 25 home runs against right-handed pitching.

The Braves star also entered the playoffs on a hot streak, batting .360 with two home runs, five runs batted in and a .951 OPS over the final two weeks (12 games). I think he’s worth consideration at nearly 7/1 in Game 3.

Kyle Schwarber to Hit a Home Run (+284)

Schwarber went deep for the Phillies in Game 2, and the superstar slugger hit 45 homers in the regular season.

There are some interesting numbers for Schwarber when it comes to both Ray Kerr (the potential lefty opener for Atlanta) and Grant Holmes (a right-handed starter).

Schwarber has homered off Holmes in his career, going 2-for-11 against him. Holmes allowed 22 home runs during the regular season, and he has some shaky advanced numbers this season, ranking in the 12th percentile in expected ERA and the 18th percentile in expected BAA.

Kerr (1.47 ERA) has been lights out in 2026, but Schwarber has actually crushed lefties in 2026, hitting for a better average (.260) and OPS (.896) than he did against righties. The Phillies star hit 15 of his 45 homers against southpaws during the regular season.

Schwarber already has some amazing postseason moments, and it wouldn’t shock me if he rises to the occasion once again on Thursday.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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