This Contradiction Could Define Spencer Arrighetti’s Future with Blue Jays
In this story:
For several reasons, Spencer Arrighetti’s 2026 season was a failure, and the complicated part for the Toronto Blue Jays is that he could not even sustain himself as a starter.
Look, it’s no secret to anyone what Arrighetti’s main problem was throughout the entire year. Let’s forget for a moment that his ability to generate swings and misses significantly dragged down the regressions of his strikeout rate and the walks kept showing up.
Let’s also take into account that he went through the injured list and it was not easy to return to his highest level. Everything was reasonable throughout his 2026 season, first with the Houston Astros, and then when he arrived in Toronto at the trade deadline.
Clearing those supposed “X’s,” Arrighetti’s real problem was the inability to survive with his pitches inside the strike zone and dominate enough to avoid a good portion of the 18 home runs he allowed. But that is not the only terrible trend here, since his 13.1 HR/FB% rate is slightly below his overall career mark of 13.2%.
How Much Did Home Runs Affect Arrighetti’s Command Profile?
I think I don’t need to tell you how many problems the home runs generated, and that Arrighetti has been a pitcher with tendencies to allow fly balls throughout his three-season career since he debuted with the Astros in 2024.
And, before getting into the analysis of where all those pitches are failing, I didn’t want to overlook this pair of contradictions that will make you think a little: if there is something to highlight about Arrighetti, it is that he finished the season in the 93rd percentile in Hard-Hit% and in the 88th in Avg. Exit Velo., two key points that can get us to a theory about where his salvation could be.
Yes, I’m sorry, sometimes it is difficult to process, and I thought the same way when I reviewed some interesting details against the opposition. In other words, in the end, his problems with allowing home runs would not be so chaotic, according to the percentiles, since Arrighetti is frequently controlling hard-hit balls and exit velocity. That changes part of the perspective, and leads us toward another angle of this analysis—don’t worry, we’ll get to the home run problem in a minute.
It’s not what usually happens during my research process, but sometimes we end up looking too much at the overall rates for the season, when in most cases, the turning point is almost always related to a specific weapon within the arsenal. In Arrighetti’s case, there was no way he could hide the vulnerability of his fastball, simply because he ended up allowing 15 of the 18 home runs he gave up, and that is easy to appreciate with a single slide on his Baseball Savant profile. The league crushed his fastball, producing a .308 xBA and .609 xSLG, while Arrighetti fought back with a 15.7% swing-and-miss rate that was not enough to survive.
Within his three-fastball core, the cutter and sinker were hit the hardest with a 25.0 HR/FB% rate, but the cutter was the pitch that lost the most edge because opponents’ Contact% rate jumped from 71.8% in 2025 to 87.5% in 2026.
One important thing here: I still suspect that the drop in Arrighetti’s cutter’s horizontal movement is part of the key to why his pitches started to lose effectiveness, but the chart of his home runs allowed made me have doubts about that theory.
I think you can notice the reason why I see a bigger problem here than Arrighetti’s loss of drop and vertical movement: he was deliberately hit in the middle of the strike zone, with the biggest tendency in the upper third. That said, I lean more toward the reasonable idea that command carries much more weight here, and it will be the biggest challenge Arrighetti will have to overcome to sustain himself in the starting rotation as the Blue Jays expect.
Add us as a preferred source on Google
Yirsandy is a baseball writer specializing in MLB coverage with experience across multiple teams and storylines. He currently writes for Diamond Centric, where he covers the New York Mets, San Diego Padres, Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers, and Kansas City Royals. My work focuses on game coverage, player analysis, and storytelling that connects performance with context. My Substack has also been an important part of my writing development, where I’ve built much of my baseball coverage and storytelling voice over time. I’m passionate about combining reporting, research, and thoughtful analysis to produce engaging baseball content for readers.
Follow Yirsandy