Where the Blue Jays Stand in the American League Wild-Card Race
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The home stretch of the 2026 regular season is here. Playoff baseball will be here soon enough, and the Toronto Blue Jays would love to play in October once again.
The Blue Jays' 13-game divisional marathon is finally over. On Tuesday, Toronto will play an opponent outside of the American League East for the first time since August 9. They finished 8-5, an impressive run to keep their playoff hopes alive.
As the Blue Jays get set for a six-game home stand against the Kansas City Royals and Seattle Mariners, let's take a look at Toronto's playoff odds.
Evaluating Toronto's Postseason Odds
Toronto enters the week with a record of 64-68. They're 1.5 games back in the American League wild-card race, only trailing the Texas Rangers and Cleveland Guardians (both 65-66). The Blue Jays will play both of these ballclubs in September.
According to FanGraphs, Toronto has an 18.3 percent chance of making the postseason and a projected win total of 79. Normally, 79 wins wouldn't come close to a playoff berth, but this year makes it certainly possible.
Most of the A.L. has been disappointing. As of Monday, four A.L. teams have a record above .500. No one is gaining or losing significant ground in the wild-card standings. That's where the Blue Jays can take advantage.
This final wild-card spot is begging for a team to go on a run. Toronto's roster was built to make an October run, and they have the opportunity to prove it. Dylan Cease believes this team is on the right track, per Keegan Matheson of MLB.com.
"We're doing the little things right," Cease said. "We're playing fundamentally well. It feels like we're in every game and we've got a shot at every game, which is where you want to be."
The Blue Jays have looked better lately, but there are still some areas to clean up. The offense went 6-for-41 with runners in scoring position last weekend. That has to improve. Toronto is built to hold a lead with Tyler Rogers and Louis Varland in the back end of the bullpen, but the relievers have been taxed lately.
Four relievers (Mason Fluharty, Braydon Fisher, Rogers, Varland) all rank in the Top 10 in relief outings. While they've done a solid job, the starting pitchers have to assist the bullpen.
Sure, this season hasn't gone to plan. But there is still an opportunity to flip the script, and in a wide-open A.L., anything is possible.
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Zion Trammell graduated from TCU in 2023 with a degree in sports broadcasting and journalism. He currently writes for TCU Horned Frogs on SI. In addition to writing, he is the play-by-play voice for Southlake Carroll baseball and hosts a TCU show on the Bleav Network.
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