Braves Given Best Odds of Winning World Series via Baseball Prospectus

The Atlanta Braves are poised for a huge season.

A season after leading MLB in wins, with 104, the Braves have a roster for this upcoming season that's even more talented on paper and expectations that are just as high.

Baseball Prospectus, releasing their PECOTA projections, have the 2024 Atlanta Braves at 101-61, tied with the Los Angeles Dodgers for the best record in baseball.

(The Dodgers technically have the higher projected win total, when you un-round the numbers, with a 101.1-60.9 projection versus Atlanta's 100.7-61.3.)

And if these projections hold true, Atlanta should cruise to their 7th consecutive NL East divisional trophy, with the Philadelphia Phillies projected to come in at 84-78, followed closely by the New York Mets (84-78, when rounding up) and the Miami Marlins at 80-82. Washington is projected to again come in last place, with PECOTA estimating a 58-104 finish for the Nationals.

#Braves PECOTA projection from @baseballpro has Atlanta finishing at 101-61, with a 99.8% chance of making the postseason, 93.3% chance of winning the division, and 18.7% odds of winning the World Series, the best WS odds in all of MLBhttps://t.co/N6ooHtjEtj pic.twitter.com/FtGWSTj3n0
— Lindsay Crosby, big baseball guy (@CrosbyBaseball) February 6, 2024

For insight on PECOTA and how it works, Baseball Prospectus has an explainer that clarifies PECOTA is pulling in their player performance projections (found here) and aggregating the results into runs scored and allowed, which is then used to run season simulations 1,000 times and identify a range of possible finishes.

In 2023, Atlanta scored 947 runs and allowed 716, a run differential of +231 (the largest in baseball). This projected to a finish of 101-61, while Atlanta actually went 104-58.

In 2024, PECOTA has Atlanta scoring 855 runs and allowing 671, a differential of 184.

It's important to note here that only two teams in baseball, the Braves and Dodgers, are projected to finish with more than 100 wins, where three teams (the Orioles were the third, at 101 wins) did it in 2023. Projection systems are notoriously conservative, and outlier events like poorly-timed injuries, ninth-inning or extra innings hits, etc/ can skew wins and losses outside of what would be expected via a simple Pythagorean projection system.

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