NL East Preview: Can the Phillies keep up with the Braves this season?

The Atlanta Braves have had a nemesis the last few seasons, and they play in Philadelphia.

Despite two consecutive 100+ win seasons and winning records in the regular season against the Phillies (8-5 in 2023, 11-8 in 2022), the Braves have suffered back-to-back 3-1 eliminations at the hands of Philadelphia in the NL Divisional Series.

Is this the season where the Phillies take the next step and contend with Atlanta for the NL East? Let's look at their offseason and where they're primed to go in 2024.

Key departures:

Free agents: 1B Rhys Hoskins (Milwaukee), RP Craig Kimbrel (Orioles), SP Michael Lorenzen, SP Aaron Nola (re-signed)
Player opt-outs: None
Club option declined: INF/OF Scott Kingrey (remains in organization)
Non-tendered: SP Josh Fleming

The Phillies roster remains largely intact for another season, with only minimal subtractions. Reliever Craig Kimbrel decamped to Baltimore, while Bryce Harper's move to first base meant that incumbent Rhys Hoskins, who missed all of 2023 with a torn ACL, was expendable.

Hoskins may be in a new city, but for the most part, not a lot is different for the Phillies in 2024.

Key additions:

Signed as free agents: SP Aaron Nola (Phillies), SP Kolby Allard (Braves)
Acquired via trade: INF Robert Moore & OF Hendry Mendez (Brewers), RP Michael Mercado (Rays)
Claimed off waivers: RP Josh Fleming (Rays) - later non-tendered

Because of the lack of subtractions at the major league level, Philly didn't need to be very active in free agency. Allard comes in on an affordable deal to replace trade deadline acquisition Michael Lorenzen, who pitched phenomenally upon first arriving before moving to the bullpen down the stretch and in the postseason.

All three trade acquisitions profile as minor league pieces, with Mercado one of the first men up out of AAA should the Phillies need a reliever and both Mendez and Moore having not yet hit the high minors.

Possible prospect promotions:

As we mentioned earlier, this roster is mostly already set at the major league level, especially on the position player side. One player to watch for is outfielder Johan Rojas - technically not a rookie anymore, but with less than 150 MLB plate appearances his lineup spot is definitely written in pencil, not pen.

One area of strength for Philadelphia in the high minors is starting pitching, where there's quite a few options for guys to come up and contribute in 2024. Top prospect Andrew Painter is still rehabbing from his mid-summer Tommy John surgery and likely won't pitch at all this season, but righties Mick Abel and Griff McGarry are both non-roster invitees to spring training and could supplement this rotation over the summer with spot starts, being elevated for doubleheaders, etc.

Remaining team needs:

Veteran 4th outfielder (preferably a righty), bullpen upgrades, bench upgrades

Like we said, this roster's mostly set and there aren't a ton of needs.

Former Braves top prospect Christian Pache, now on his 3rd organization, provides some defense off the bench but has so far shown incapable of producing offensively at the major league level. Ideally, there's a veteran (Adam Duvall, Whit Merrifield, etc) that can come in to play a corner on a rotational basis, giving the team a MLB-quality offensive option if someone is either injured or ineffective.

There's five or six quality relief options here, headlined by Jose Alvarado, Serathony Dominguez, Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahmm and Gregory Soto. Youngster Orion Kerkering looks to be potentially be another reliable piece, but after the team built the bullpen on the fly last season out of minor league signings, a veteran on a reasonable deal to provide versatility and depth wouldn't hurt.

2024 outlook:

Sportsbooks: O/U 90.5 Wins and +300 to win the division, per FanDuel
Projections: 90-72, per FanGraphs

It's hard to see where this team could be worse than last season. Trea Turner can't start off as cold as he was last season, while Bryce Harper's already gotten past the re-acclimation phase of returning from Tommy John surgery and is now back to crushing baseballs, as Orlando Arcia can attest.

The rotation is deep, both at the major league level and the possible prospect additions to it from the minors. The bullpen has plenty of options, both left and right-handed, to get critical outs in a late game scenario.

Official prediction: Give me the over on 90.5 wins, but I still don't think Philly passes Atlanta for the division. The #1 Wild Card spot wouldn't be a shock at all.

Should the Atlanta Braves be worried about Philadelphia in 2024?

At this point, you have to be, right? They've been your kryptonite in the postseason, and so even if you win the season series (like you have the last two years), Philadelphia's the team to beat in the postseason if you're the Atlanta Braves.

Underestimate them at your own risk.

Other NL East Previews:
Miami Marlins - What are the Miami Marlins doing, exactly?
Washington Nationals - The Nationals are still in the rebuild
New York Mets - Do the Mets show signs of life this season?
Philadelphia Phillies - Can the Phillies keep up with the Braves this season?

Alex Anthopoulos hasn't lost a trade in six years

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Current Atlanta Braves prospect rankings
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