Braves Set for Do-or-Die Stretch vs Phillies, Possible World Series Foe

The Atlanta Braves get a day to breathe and travel to their next destination. After that, the do-or-die stretch on the schedule will arrive.

They had their chances to put this division race away, but a couple of slumps ensured that seven games in a 10-game stretch against the archrival Philadelphia Phillies would matter. Low blood pressure need not apply.

As things stand ahead of Friday, the Braves hold a four-game lead over the Phillies. In the best-case scenario, they head back home to face the Rays on Tuesday, Sept. 8, with an eight-game lead for the division. In the worst-case scenario, there is a tie for first in the National League East.

Only one win over the next couple of days is needed for the buffer of at least two games to hold up ahead of the rematch in Atlanta next weekend. But it should be clear that the urgency is high.

Their division lead has held since they pulled ahead of the Mets and Marlins on April 8. At the time, the Phillies looked to be out of the picture. Along with the current division lead, going 5-1 against the Phillies back in April helped the Braves ensure their rival started off 9-19.

A change came at manager from Rob Thomson to Don Mattingly, and a switch flipped.

It didn’t matter for a time, but then the slump in June woke the Braves up. They’ve gotten lucky that the Phillies have had their ebbs and flows, too. It all changes when they’re going head-to-head.

Where Do the Braves Have the Advantage?

Both teams come in with strong pitching. The upcoming series even tees off with two likely Cy Young Award finalists going toe-to-toe, Chris Sale vs Cristopher Sánchez.

In August, both teams had similar ERAs for their rotation (2.97 for the Braves and 2.99 for the Phillies) and their bullpens (3.35 for the Braves and 3.18 for the Phillies).

A couple of weeks ago, there would have been concern for the Braves on offense. The Phillies offense was tearing it up in early August, while the Braves were experiencing a slump. The early half of August was so notable that the Phillies still have a strong advantage when looking at the last 30 days (a .741 OPS vs a .692 OPS).

The last week leading up to this matchup tells a different story. The Braves have a .774 OPS in that time compared to the Phillies’ .668 OPS. One has the clear momentum at the right time.

A Potential World Series Matchup in the Interim

Another interesting element of the next 10 days comes in the form of a potential World Series matchup. In between the two series with the Phillies, the Braves will host the Rays for three games. It’ll be the first time these two teams will see each other this season as part of the balanced interleague schedule.

Both teams had five All-Stars this season, both on offense and on the pitching side.

Like with the Dodgers late last month and the upcoming Phillies, it’s a chance to get a taste of a potential playoff atmosphere.

Both the Braves and Rays have two of the better starting rotations in the game. The Rays’ rotation has the fourth-best ERA (3.58) in baseball, while the Braves have the seventh-best (3.72).

For the bullpen, the Braves, on paper, have the edge. Their bullpen has been stronger, a 3.38 ERA vs a 4.05 ERA this season.

On offense, it gets surprising: despite the Braves having scored more runs (653 vs 628) and hit more home runs (178 vs 144), the Rays have a better team OPS (.733 vs .725). They bring an edge as a tough out, with the fewest strikeouts in baseball this season and a much higher on-base percentage. They have a clip of .329 (fifth in baseball) compared to the Braves’ .312 (23rd in baseball).

Low-strikeout teams have given the Braves fits before. Having this preview a couple of weeks before playoff time could come in handy when getting ready for postseason action.

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