Alex Bregman to Opt Out: Realistic Option for Braves?

All-Star third baseman Alex Bregman is expected to be on the market. Per MLB insider Jon Heyman, he will exercise his opt-out to be a free agent and see a bigger contract. Now that the word is out there, we can dive into whether this is a realistic option for the Atlanta Braves.

Going from the team in Boston to the team that used to share Boston makes for a fun narrative.

Welcome to Atlanta Braves on SI's offseason series, "Realistic Option for Braves?" where we evaluate if a free agent could realistically choose Atlanta this winter. To see the previous edition discussing Japanese star Munetaka Murakami, click here.

To decide whether or not this is realistic, we'll look at a few things: what he brings to the table, position of need, contract value, Braves' history with free agents and who Bregman's agent is.

It wouldn't take much convincing that Bregman would make for a nice addition to the Braves lineup. The three-time All-Star is coming off his best season of the 2020s decade. In 114 games, he batted .272 with an .820 OPS, 128 OPS+, 18 home runs and 62 RBIs.

He has a Gold Glove to his name and has received MVP votes on five occasions, including a runner-up finish in 2019. If you know who he is, you probably would like him in your lineup.

However, it's never so easy as 'this guy is good, so sign him.' More is working against the Braves than in their favor.

According to Spotrac, Bregman's market value is set at $27.7 million, and he is worth a four-year contract, bringing the total amount tied up to $110.8 million. That would make him the highest-paid player on the team. Currently, the highest-paid players are Matt Olson and Austin Riley at $22 million apiece per season.

Speaking of Riley, Bregman is a third baseman. He had played shortstop and second in the majors, so there is an argument that he could take over one of them. Realistically, if he were to play either of them, it would be shortstop. He has played nine total games at second in his career, two of which he started. We haven't even gotten to the fact that Ozzie Albies' option comes at a $7 million price tag.

Bregman has played 129 games at shortstop in his career, starting at the position in 107 of those games. The bulk of them came during the 2019 season, when he played 65 games (59 starts) at the position. That was also the most recent season that he has played the position. Even after Carlos Correa left Houston, it wasn't even experimented with again.

Is it possible that a player changes positions when he goes to a new team? Sure. But unless a report comes out that says Bregman is open to switching, it's safe to assume he'll continue to be a third baseman, making it harder for him to land in Atlanta.

The Braves also tend to give out large paydays to their homegrown talent. Riley is homegrown and so are Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña Jr. The bigger value contracts for non-homegrown talent have typically gone to players acquired in a trade and extended (ex: Matt Olson, Sean Murphy and Chris Sale).

Jurickson Profar is a notable recent example of a free-agent splash. However, there was an outfield position open for the taking. Third base is locked down until 2033. Signing Bregman would help set a new precedent, which would be a wise decision this offseason. However, you have to wait and see it to believe it.

Another precedent would have to be set along with the big free-agent splash, and that's being more open to dealing with Scott Boras. This sticking point makes re-signing a current player on the staff complicated: Ha-Seong Kim.

Here is how a potential timeline could play out. Kim walks in free agency, and the Braves pivot to spending on Bregman in a case where they don't spend to keep Kim. If that scenario doesn't sound very realistic, it's because it doesn't.

Look, the odds are greater than zero that he comes to Atlanta. Few would object to the idea in theory. But when you really start to dig into it, the less likely it sounds. If this conclusion proves to be wrong, then we'll see him in North Port, specifically in a Braves uniform, this Spring.

More From Atlanta Braves on SI