FanGraphs Projections Favorable for Braves Starting Rotation

The Atlanta Braves have some favorable projections for the rotation, even if they can be viewed as playing it safe

Braves starters might have to prove they can stay healthy | Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

As we inch closer to Spring Traning, it doesn’t hurt to check in on what expectations are for members of the Atlanta Braves. After a turbulent 2025 for the starting rotation, FanGraphs expects the chaos to calm a bit. 

However, when looking deeper into the Steamer projections, it’s clear that last season had an impact on the projections. Let’s dive into those here. 

Number of Starters, Innings Pitched and Games Started

After adding it all up, eight pitchers are expected to combine to start 157 of the 162 games in 2026. Seven of those arms are expected to make at least 10 starts. Those who are expected to make the vast majority of starts are about who you would expect: Chris Sale, Spencer Strider, Spencer Schwellenbach, Hurston Waldrep, Reynalo Lopez, Grant Holmes, Bryce Elder and Joey Wentz. 

It’s the pitchers who made it to the end of last season and were able to stick around for 2026. Here is the breakdown of the projected starts, apperaances and innings pitched for each pitcher listed. If there are no projected bullpen appearances for a pitcher, only his projected starts are included. 

• Sale: 28 starts, 169 innings pitched
• Stider: 28 starts, 161 innings pitched 
• Schwellenbach: 28 starts, 167 innings pitched 
• Waldrep: 26 starts, 146 innings pitched
• Lopez: 37 games, 21 starts, 134 innings pitched
• Holmes: 35 games, 11 starts, 87 innings pitched
• Elder: 18 games, 10 starts, 63 innings pitched
• Wentz: 39 games: five starts, 60 innings pitched 

No one is projected to make 30 or get 180 innings under their belt. After last season, it’s not hard to understand why the projections would be hesitant to say any of them will get there. Some of these arms will have to prove they can be healthy for a full year. 

Statsues for the rotation are likely playing a role, too. We’re not sure if Holmes or Lopez are going to be rotation arms or not yet. Both had major injuries last season and both could make for options in the bullpen to keep them healthy as well. 

Overall Performance

Next, we’ll look at how they’re expected to performance in the action they’re projected to get. 

• Sale: 3.19 ERA, 4.2 fWAR, 1.09 WHIP, .221 BAA
• Stider: 3.83 ERA, 2.7 fWAR, 1.23 WHIP, .229 BAA
• Schwellenbach: 3.65 ERA, 3.0 fWAR, 1.18 WHIP,  .247 BAA
• Waldrep: 4.31 ERA, 1.3 fWAR, 1.44 WHIP, .257 BAA
• Lopez: 4.02 ERA, 1.7 fWAR, 1.28 WHIP, .243 BAA
• Holmes: 4.10 ERA, 0.8 fWAR, 1.33 WHIP, .248 BAA
• Elder: 4.43 ERA, 0.5 fWAR, 1.39 WHIP, .268 BAA
• Wentz: 4.34 ERA, 0.2 fWAR, 1.37 WHIP, .250 BAA

The predictions are playing it conservative with some of the projects, especially with how certain arms performed last year, mainly Sale, Schwellenbach and Waldrep. Holmes, Elder and Wentz are probably where you’d expect their projections to be. Strider is at least expected to improve. Lopez isn’t expected to look like his All-Star self. 

Overall, it’s expected to be a good starting rotation. The projects just aren’t saying they’ll be lights out. Sale and Schwellenbach are the most likely to beat their projections, if two had to be picked to do so. It would be nice for the Braves to see Waldrep repeat his solid run from last season, but it wouldn't be too outlandish to predict that he experiences some growing pains.

What would be ideal for this team would be if any other can be the projection for innings and starts. That would also help put the team in a better position than last season. Not having the innings from Charlie Morton really showed, and one of these guys filling that role would help with the continuity substantially. 

Obviously, the odds of five starters ending up on the 60-day injured list again is slim. However, at least one is always a possibility. AJ Smith-Shawever will already be one by default, but one of these eight joining him again can never be ruled out. 

Having eight options available would take some pressure off, and this doesn’t even include any potential external additions or use of prospects. Overall, the projections bode well for this team. If this is what they get, they should see somewhat of a bounceback in 2026.