JJ Wetherholt's NL Rookie of the Year Case vs. Sal Stewart Examined

Does St. Louis Cardinals rookie phenom JJ Wetherholt have enough time left to separate himself from the pack and take home the 2026 National League Rookie of the Year Award?

Wetherholt returned to the field on Wednesday and went 0-for-3 against the San Francisco Giants in his first bit of game action since Aug. 29. The Cardinals have just nine games left in the 2026 season and the race for the Rookie of the Year Award arguably is going to be the most interesting thing to watch. This is because the Cardinals would receive a draft pick just after the first round thanks to the league's Prospect Promotion Incentive. Wetherholt and Sal Stewart of the Cincinnati Reds seemingly are the two most likely options for the award. Recently, Stewart has gotten all of the buzz, but ESPN's Bradford Doolittle gave Cardinals fans some hope on Wednesday. Doolittle shared a column about the award watch around Major League Baseball and had Wetherholt as the favorite for the NL Rookie of the Year Award based on AXE ratings.

"National League: Front-runner: JJ Wetherholt, St. Louis Cardinals (127.5 AXE)," Doolittle wrote. "... Leader trend: Wetherholt retains a sizable AXE lead, but his edge has eroded steadily because of a second-half slump at the plate followed by a late-August injury that kept him on the IL until this week. The betting markets now favor Stewart in this race, and it's unclear that a big finish by Wetherholt would change that reality."

JJ Wetherholt Vs. Sal Stewart

Aug 17, 2026; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; St. Louis Cardinals second baseman JJ Wetherholt (26) runs off the field at the end of the first inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

This is a bit of hope for Cardinals fans, although not a guarantee, of course. The AXE rating is an advanced metric that takes into account bWAR, fWAR, win probability added and championship probability added, among others. So, from an advanced metric perspective, Wetherholt has the edge. This isn't shocking. For example, he has 4.6 wins above replacement, in comparison to Stewart's 2.3 wins above replacement.

If you have been following the race on social media, you've likely heard a lot about Stewart. He has 31 homers and 108 RBIs in 152 games. Those are the types of numbers that get attention around baseball. But social media doesn't dictate the races for awards. The voters do. If a voter prefers advanced metrics, Wetherholt is far and away the top choice. If a voter prefers old-school numbers, then Stewart's homers and RBIs will put him over the top.

This race isn't over and it will at least be a question for voters to consider. What is more important? Arguably, Wetherholt has been the better overall player in 2026. Wetherholt's offensive numbers are good, although Stewart's offensive metrics are better. But what separates Wetherholt is the fact that he has not only been a Gold Glove-level defender this year, but one of the top five defensive players in baseball. He is third in outs above average (22), behind just Pete Crow-Armstrong and Bobby Witt Jr. Wetherholt is in the 100th percentile in outs above average. In comparison, Stewart is in the 31st percentile with -1 outs above average.

Stewart's home run and RBI numbers are better than Wetherholt's. Wetherholt's defensive performance and advanced metrics have been significantly better than Stewart's. All of this is to say that the race isn't over. Even if Stewart does come away on top, it's not going to be a runaway vote — or at least it shouldn't be.

Add us as a preferred source on Google