Why Cardinals’ 2026 Win-Total Odds Might Be Undervaluing St. Louis

The Cardinals may be rebuilding but don't count them out.

Sep 21, 2025; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; St. Louis Cardinals designated hitter Ivan Herrera (48) celebrates with first baseman Alec Burleson (41) after hitting a two run home run against the Milwaukee Brewers during the third inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-Imagn Images | Jeff Curry-Imagn Images

The St. Louis Cardinals are in the midst of a full rebuild for the first time in over three decades. The time was right for St. Louis to tear things down under Chaim Bloom and set course for the future rather than trying to remain competitive with a sub-par team.

2026 may be a bit of a rough year for St. Louis in terms of where they are in the standings. Vegas Insider places the over/under win total for St. Louis at 71.5.

However, while it's fair to assume St. Louis won't contend, this prediction might be a little harsh from the betting professionals.

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Vegas is harsh on Cardinals

Sep 23, 2025; San Francisco, California, USA; St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Alec Burleson (41) celebrates a RBI single against the San Francisco Giants during the ninth inning at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: Eakin Howard-Imagn Images | Eakin Howard-Imagn Images

Again, it's fair to assume that 2026 might be a rough year for the Cardinals. They've traded Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras and Nolan Arenado. However, this offseason hasn't been a total loss, as they have at least finally picked a direction.

While that direction has them trending downwards, there are several reasons why hope is not lost in St. Louis. Arenado had struggled last season, hitting just .237 with 12 home runs and a .666 OPS. While they'll miss his defense, his offense was declining, and now that he's gone, third base is open for top prospect JJ Wetherholt, who if he's as good as advertised could actually give them an upgrade offensively.

The Cardinals still have a strong bullpen with Riley O'Brien, JoJo Romero and Matt Svanson at the back end of games, and it got even stronger with the addition of Ryne Stanek. And while there isn't an ace in the starting rotation, there is much more depth thanks to the Gray and Contreras trades, as they landed both Hunter Dobbins and Richard Fitts in those deals, who are Major League ready arms.

In addition, they signed veteran right-hander Dustin May to a one-year, $12.5 million contract. He should provide some stability for the rotation in 2026.

The team also still has Brendan Donovan, Masyn Winn, Alec Burleson and Ivan Herrera in their lineup. The latter two have some power in their bats, and if they can both stay healthy, the offense could be better than expected.

The worst-case scenario though is that if the Cardinals are out of contention, they trade Donovan, Romero, Stanek and May and beef up on more prospects for the future. Still, there are ways the Cardinals can outperform their expectations.

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