Clay Holmes Trade Grades: Cubs Give Mets a New No. 1 Prospect for Righty Starter

New York pulled off its best piece of business at this trade deadline while sending Holmes to the pitching-needy Cubs.

The Mets traded pitcher Clay Holmes to the Cubs as part of a package for a top infield prospect. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Mets continue selling off everything that isn’t nailed down, and with about an hour to go before the deadline, they swung a big deal.

New York is sending starter Clay Holmes and outfielder Tyrone Taylor to the Cubs in exchange for top infield prospect Jefferson Rojas. It’s the kind of trade that signals Chicago is going for it, while the Mets are in full retool mode, with GM David Stearns attempting to reverse some of his biggest mistakes.

It’s time to grade this deal and see who came out on top.

Cubs

Holmes has had an unfortunate season after fracturing his right fibula when he took a line drive off his leg against the Yankees on May 15. He is on the road back to the big leagues, but it has been a long road. Before suffering that injury, he was having a solid season. Through nine starts, the 33-year-old was 4–4 with a 2.39 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 45 strikeouts in 52 2/3 innings.

After three seasons as an All-Star closer for the Yankees, the Mets inked Holmes to a three-year, $38 million deal to become a starter in December of 2024. The conversion was a success as he wound up being New York’s Opening Day starter and went 12–8 with a 3.53 ERA in 165 2/3 innings. He holds a player option for $12 million next season and may want to test the open market given that he’s proven himself as a starter.

Holmes is a solid bet here. His arsenal is led by a sinker that averages 93.7 mph, and opposing hitters struggle to barrel up. His high-spin sweeper generates a 35.9% whiff rate, and opponents have an xBA of .100 and an xSLG of .114 off of it. His changeup is similarly solid—.312 xSLG, as is his high-spin curveball that drops off the table (.177 xSLG). The stuff is there to bank on Holmes being a solid contributor for the rest of the season.

Taylor is a 32-year-old outfielder who should provide solid depth for the Cubs. Through 67 games this season, he’s slashing .241/.290/.503 with 10 home runs and a career-best wRC+ of 117. With Matt Shaw on the IL, Taylor will likely see a decent number of at-bats, and he has excellent splits against lefties (.301/.311/.589), making him an ideal platoon bat.

The issue here is the price, as Rojas is a really nice prospect who isn’t far from the big leagues. That said, with Dansby Swanson and Alex Bregman locked in to long-term deals, he’s likely blocked in Chicago. The emergence of 22-year-old Pedro Ramírez also made this deal more palatable.

Cubs grade: B+

Mets

The Mets aren’t close to contention, so they’ve been in full sell mode this week. This might be the best deal they worked.

Holmes has been good since signing, but he can bolt after this season, so they risked losing him for nothing. Taylor is a depth/platoon piece on a contender, so there’s no need to hold there.

The Cubs signed Rojas for $1 million out of the Dominican Republic in 2022, and features solid to plus tools across the board. He’s slight at 5'11" and 150 pounds, but still has decent power, backed by excellent bat-to-ball skills and pitch recognition. He’s unlikely to stick at shortstop, but has a good arm and could work at third base, where he has played for a lot of this year.

The 21-year-old Rojas has spent the whole season at Double A and has held his own, slashing .270/.339/.461 with 15 home runs, 57 RBIs, 17 stolen bases and a 114 wRC+. His walk rate has dropped a few points to 9%, but his strikeout rate has remained steady at 16.4%. He’s a top 100 prospect and should slot in as the Mets’ new No. 1.

That’s a great deal given what New York gave up.

Mets grade: A

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