How Much Justin Steele Is Projected To Cost The Cubs In Salary Arbitration

The Chicago Cubs are working toward 2026 after falling to the Milwaukee Brewers in the playoffs, and one of those tasks will be salary arbitration.

Fortunately, the Cubs don’t face many decisions. But there is one player that will cost them more than any other, and that’s pitcher Justin Steele.

Steele, a left-hander, made just four starts in 2025, as he went 3-1 with a 4.76 ERA, with 21 strikeouts and five walks in 22.2 innings. He suffered an elbow injury that led to Tommy John surgery and took him out for the remainder of the season. The Cubs are hopeful that Steele will be able to rejoin the rotation at some point in 2026.

In the meantime, the Cubs must get his arbitration deal done, and he will cost $4 million more than the other three players set for arbitration per MLB Trade Rumors, which released salary arbitration projection figures recently.

Chicago Cubs Arbitration Bill

Justin Steele — Matt Marton-Imagn Images

The Cubs need to get something done with Steele even if he does miss part or all of the 2026 season. The only other option would be to non-tender him, which means the Cubs don’t intend to offer him a contract for 2026 and he could be a free agent. Chicago would almost surely lose Steele on the open market, even with the injury.

Steele is projected to receive $6.55 million based on four years of service time and his body of work. Notably, in 2023 he went 16-5 with a 3.06 ERA in 30 starts. He struck out 176 and walked 36. He was named to the National League All-Star Team and finished fifth in NL Cy Young voting. That season helped boost his arbitration figure.

He enters 2026 with a 32-22 record and a 3.30 ERA in 102 games (91) starts since he made his MLB debut in 2021.

The other three Cubs facing salary arbitration are catcher Reese McGuire, pitcher Eli Morgan — who missed most of the season due to injury — and pitcher Javier Assad. McGuire, who has five years of service time, and is projected $1.9 million. Morgan has four years of service time and is projected $1.1 million. Assad has three years of service time and is projected to get $1.9 million.

Javier Assad — Aaron Doster-Imagn Images

Players with at least three years of service time and no more than six years of service time are eligible for arbitration. Some players with less than three years are eligible based on certain criteria (usually called Super 2 players).

Typically, eligible players and teams settle before a hearing. If there is no deal before the deadline, then the two sides exchange salary demands and go to a hearing. Any time before that hearing a settlement can be reached.

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