Are the Cubs Back on Track? What Went Right Against the Pirates

Riding a two-game win streak after finally putting their 10-game skid behind them, the Cubs are heading into another NL Central division clash, this time with the Cardinals. Both teams are scuffling, as St. Louis is currently losers of four in a row and have a 3-7 record in its last 10 games. It sure would be nice for the Cubs to gain some games in the division while they're foe is down.

The Cubs offense had to wake up in the final two games of their four-game set with the Pirates, scoring 17 of their 19 runs of the series in those two games alone. The one major difference in two games was the Cubs’ extra base power, getting six extra base hits in the last two contests. The Cubs had nine collective extra base hits in their prior eight games.

The Cubs also scored first in both games, something they failed to do in eight of their previous 10 games, despite leading the league in both walk rate (11.7) and runners left on base (459). To be clear, Cubs were creating scoring opportunities, but they just weren't getting the big hits needed in those moments. Their .677 OPS in RISP situations reflects that, as well.

May 28, 2026; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Chicago Cubs left fielder Ian Happ (8), center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong (middle), and right fielder Seiya Suzuki (27) celebrate in the outfield after defeating the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

What makes this sustainable for the Cubs?

While leading the league in runners left on base can sound like a bad thing, it's not always a clear sign your offense is bad. The Cubs are still a Top 10 run scoring team at the moment, ranking sixth with 272 runs so far — only the Pirates have scored more runs in the NL Central. Players like Ian Happ and Alex Bregman need to keep generating extra-base power for the Cubs, because they're putting runners on despite the lack of total hits.

One reason for the recent missing pop from the Cubs’ lineup could be the historic amount of breaking pitches they're seeing, as Mike Petriello pointed out at MLB.com. According to Petriello's research, 37% of the pitches the Cubs have seen this May were breaking balls. This is the highest breaking-ball rate in a month that the Cubs have seen in the pitch-tracking era. Petriello also noted that they currently have five of the top 10 hitters with the highest breaking-ball pitches seen: Seiya Suzuki (47.9%) and Dansby Swanson (47.8%) are at the very top of the list.

The barrage of breaking balls has clearly impacted the Cubs, as their Team OPS drops plummeted to .633 this May, but positive regression should be coming for this group, right? There is no way Suzuki, Swanson, and even Alex Bregman continue to struggle this much against offspeed pitches. And it's been encouraging to see someone like Pete Crow-Armstrong with what would be a career-high 9.4% walk rate in a month where he's likely never seen more breaking balls in his lifetime.

At the of the day, there is a case to make that the numbers still show the Cubs are a top offense in baseball, despite their horrible two-week affair with losing. And if they can generate even more power, they should remain a top offense and get back on a winning track. Fingers crossed.

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