Chicago Cubs Superstar Slugger Has Motivation to Claim First MVP Award

The Chicago Cubs announced that they mean business in 2025 when they acquired Kyle Tucker this offseason.

Tucker is in his prime at 28 years old and he's been very good over the last four years, averaging a 5.3 bWAR per season over that span. That's not quite in traditional MVP territory, but it's on the fringe where a reasonable surge could push him into true contention. A 7.0 bWAR is the minimum MVP threshold for most winners since 2000.

A number of National League MVP winners this century have finished between a 7.0 and a 7.6 bWAR, but that was before Shohei Ohtani landed in the NL.

If anyone is going to win the NL MVP anytime soon, they have to overcome the Los Angeles Dodgers' dual-threat unicorn Ohtani. The truth is Ohtani may need to miss time for anyone else to have a real shot, especially considering he won last year without pitching. The Dodgers expect Ohtani to return to the rotation as early as May.

He's coming off his second Tommy John surgery, so it's possible that Ohtani's impact as a pitcher this year could be limited. In a sense, that could make 2025 the year for someone else to win the NL MVP.

Tucker is on the short list of contenders that could win this year's MVP, but that will require at least one of two scenarios apart from Ohtani specifically having a rough season.

The first is Tucker has a career year before he hits the free agent market this offseason. His 5.7 bWAR in 2021 where he slashed .294/.359/.557 with 30 homers marks his most productive campaign to date.

He's in a new city, playing for one of the league's marque brands in the Cubs, with a massive contract on the table next winter. Money is a motivator, and Tucker has all the incentive in the world to make 2025 a maximum effort season.

A contract year surge could realistically push Tucker into that 7.0 bWAR to 7.6bWAR territory.

The other path is Tucker roughly matches his best season to date while the Cubs make the playoffs, and no one else in the NL has a great year. There's a few examples of a sub 7.0 bWAR performer taking down the NL MVP since the turn of the century.

Freddie Freeman won the 2020 MVP with a 3.3 bWAR, but that was the Covid-shortened season and thus a general wash. The other three all won the NL MVP with the Philadelphia Phillies.

Brycer Harper posted a 5.9 bWAR in 2021, Jimmy Rollins a 6.1 in '07 and Ryan Howard a 5.2 in '06. Howard hit 58 home runs in his MVP year while Rollins hit 20 triples and 30 homers while playing in all 162 games. It would be extremely unlikely for Tucker to parallel either of those seasons.

Harper slashed .309/.429/.615 with 35 homers during his 2021 MVP win. Tucker could put together that kind of year without it being much of a surprise.

Ultimately, a lot of things need to break Tucker's way for him to win his first MVP. Even if he just contends, he has a massive payday coming his way this winter.

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