Cubs Set to Seize the Division as Data Projects Rivals Decline

The Chicago Cubs entered the offseason as a team trying to make some big improvements following their first taste of playoff success in close to a decade, and that is just what they have done.

While of course everyone wants to get back to the World Series, the Cubs must first focus on securing the home front and winning the National League Central for the first time in a full season since 2017.

This means handling the pesky Milwaukee Brewers, who have won the division in four of the last five years both with and without manager Craig Counsell. According to FanGraphs projections, as relayed by David Adler of MLB.com, though, things are trending exactly the way Chicago wants them to.

Brewers and Reds among teams trending down this winter

Freddy Peralta of Milwaukee Brewers throws pitch from right hand — Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Freddy Peralta | Michael McLoone-Imagn Images

According to the projections, Milwaukee – who, to be fair, metrics like this are often wrong about – will have a 14-win drop-off from last year's record that saw them win 97 games, being pegged to go 83-79.

Last year, the Cubs had a stranglehold on the Central before the Brewers seemingly forgot how to lose over the summer and took hold of things. But now, Milwaukee has dealt away its ace in Freddy Peralta and will have to replace him.

Also among the downward-trending teams was the Cincinnati Reds, who made an unlikely push to the playoffs after a late-season surge, but are now projected for a record of 78-84 this season. This seems like a natural projection after an unlikely playoff run and quiet offseason, but it makes things interesting within the division for Chicago

Can the Cubs finally take control of the NL Central this year?

Alex Bregman of Chicago Cubs smiling behind microphone. — Alex Bregman is introduced as a new Chicago Cubs player | David Banks-Imagn Images

On paper, it certainly seems like this is the year for Chicago to establish itself as the premier contender in the division and the team that should be claiming the crown at the end of the regular season.

Needless to say, the sport is not played on paper and any number of wacky things can happen to impact the Cubs' chances of getting it done. With that being said, though, Jed Hoyer has spent the offseason putting the team in the best position possible, and it seems like he is not even done yet.

After some very lean years since Chicago's World Series title in 2016, the Cubs are back to being ready to be a regular fixture on baseball's biggest stage. It starts in the division, though, and it's time for this team to stake its claim.

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