Inside the Cubs' Genius 'Checkmate' Move With Shota Imanaga’s Contract

The Chicago Cubs faced a unique decision when it came to 32-year-old pitcher Shota Imanaga's contract this MLB offseason.

The Cubs had a team option to extend Imanaga's contract for three more seasons, which would have been worth about $57 million. If the Cubs declined that team option, it triggered a one-year, $15 million player option for Imanaga.

On November 4, news broke that the Cubs did indeed decline that team option, and Imanaga declined his player option. So, unless he accepts the $22.05 million qualifying offer the Cubs are expected to send his way, Imanaga will become an unrestricted free agent.

Chicago's decision not to bring Imanaga back was head-scratching at first. He's one season removed from being one of the National League's best starting pitchers, and while Imanaga couldn't produce the same success in his 2025 campaign, he still posted a respectable 9-8 record and 3.78 ERA across 25 starts and 144.2 innings pitched.

Chicago Cubs pitcher Shota Imanaga (18) walks in from the bullpen on September 16, 2025 — Sep 16, 2025; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Chicago Cubs pitcher Shota Imanaga | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

So why did the Cubs make this decision?

Insider Explains Fascinating Aspects of Cubs' Shota Imanaga Decision

The Athletic insider Ken Rosenthal shed light on the Cubs' likely line of thinking in declining Imanaga's contract during a November 5 appearance on Foul Territory.

"Even Shota, to me, was kind of an obvious one. The Cubs were not three years, $57.5 million. That's the option they would have had to have picked up," Rosenthal said, per an X post from Foul Territory. "Then, at that point, Shota gets the right to decline his option in that deal. And he knows that he can do better with a qualifying offer, which I assume he's going to get from the Cubs.

"To me, this is kind of checkmate by the Cubs to Shota, because if he gets a qualifying offer, then he's saddled with that in free agency. It's always more difficult with the qualifying offer than without. And maybe it's best for him to just come back on a one-year deal, $22.05 million," Rosenthal continued.

The Cubs decision to decline Shota Imanaga's option feels like a checkmate move, says @Ken_Rosenthal. pic.twitter.com/30qX27TYJ0
— Foul Territory (@FoulTerritoryTV) November 5, 2025

"And then the Cubs are happy, because they'd always have a player on a one-year deal than a three-year deal when that player had some questions about him this season," he concluded.

In other words, the Cubs are banking on Imanaga's free agency market being negatively impacted by his potentially turning down their qualifying offer, because this would mean the team that ultimately signs him would have to forfeit one of their top MLB Draft picks.

While this seems like a risk, the Cubs appear to have made a calculated move that could end up with Imanaga accepting the qualifying offer and returning to Chicago in a team-friendly way.

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