Slow Start for Cubs Could Precede Equally Extreme Surge in Upcoming Months

The Chicago Cubs are off to a slow start in all areas, but it's possible for the team to roar back.

Mar 19, 2025; Bunkyo, Tokyo, JPN; Chicago Cubs right fielder Kyle Tucker (30) bats against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the ninth inning during the Tokyo Series at Tokyo Dome. | Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

A Major League Baseball campaign is a marathon, not a sprint, so it's hardly time to push the panic button on the Chicago Cubs' 1-3 start.

Four games only accounts for roughly 2.5% of an MLB season, but nothing is going right for the Cubs.

Leadoff hitter Ian Happ is the only everyday player on the team hitting over .250, with just a .267 average. Six of the team's nine starters on Friday are now hitting below .200.

MVP-contender Kyle Tucker only has two hits for a .125 average to open the year.

Chicago has also allowed six or more runs in each of their last three games.

It's a small sample, but it's hard to imagine a more slower start for a team that has high postseason aspirations like the Cubs.

Professional sports, over the long term, are regression to the mean events.

In other words, when virtually every player on a talented team like Chicago gets off to a slow start, it makes it possible the large portions of the roster regress to the mean at roughly the same time. That could, in a best-case scenario, lead to an abnormal surge for the Cubs.

The 2011 Tampa Bay Rays are a fine example of this, as they lost their first six games and got off to a 1-8 start. From there the Rays went 19-6 over their next 25 games, turning that 1-8 start into a 20-14 record heading into the second week of May.

Tampa finished 91-71 in 2011, making the playoffs.

Chicago's hopes come with some projection, but they have finished 83-79 in each of the last two years, giving them a solid baseline.

It's also worth taking their abnormal opening schedule into account, as facing the Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks is a difficult draw for anyone.

Not only did the Cubs face the best team in the league to start the season, but they had to travel to Japan to do it.

When it comes to projecting the future for Chicago, that series against the Dodgers should more or less be ignored.

Truth be told, the Cubs have a brutal schedule through the first third of May, so their struggles may continue over the next several weeks. But beyond that, they have a much more manageable stretch through mid-June, one that sets up well for a multi-week tear.

Regardless of how the next month plays out for Chicago, there's plenty of time for the Cubs to get back on track, and they have plenty of talent to right the ship.