Diamondbacks Play the First Place Mariners in Seattle this Weekend

A comprehensive preview of the D-backs first visit to the Emerald City since 2021

The Arizona Diamondbacks (12-14) are in Seattle to the play the Mariners (13-12) for a three game series starting Friday night. It will be the sixth time the Diamondbacks have made the trip to Seattle , and the first time since 2021.

The D-backs are tied with the Giants for third place in the NL West, 3.5 games behind the Dodgers. They're also 2.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot with three teams in between them and the Cincinnati Reds. Standings page here. The D-backs have a +35 run differential scoring 149 runs and allowing 114. Their expected W-L record is 16-10, four games better than their actual record.

The Mariners just took two of three from the Texas Rangers in Texas to vault ahead of the World Series Champions into first place in the AL West. Seattle has a +4 run differential scoring 93 runs and allowing 89. Their expected W-L record matches their actual record at 13-12.

With a multi year park factor of 96 for hitters and 95 for pitchers, T-Mobile Park (Formerly Safeco Field) remains one of the most pitcher friendly parks in baseball. In fact it ranks as the 5th best pitcher's park in MLB.

The stadium has a roof to protect from the rain, but has an open air design. The cool damp air of the region has a dampening effect on offense and thus affects all hitting and pitching stats more than most ballparks. Temperatures will be in the mid to low 50's with clouds and intermittent rain throughout the weekend.

Friday, 6:40 P.M. PST/MST

Zac Gallen, RHP, 3-1, 3.00 ERA, 137 ERA+

Gallen, who made his first All Star game start in Seattle last year, has made five starts and thrown 27 innings in 2024. His most recent outing in San Francisco did not go well as he allowed five runs on nine hits, including two homers, in just five innings of work. That ballooned his ERA from 1.64 to 3.00. With Merrill Kelly and Eduardo Rodriguez out for the foreseeable future, it's critical for the D-backs success that Gallen be a stopper for the team.

Gallen's best pitch so far this season has been his knuckle curve. But his slider and change up have not been sharp. His average fastball velocity is down to 92.5 MPH from 93.6 last year and 94.1 in 2022. When he makes location mistakes, or hitters can sit on the fastball when he can't land the slider or changeup, then his fastball is prone to getting hit harder than in the past.

Emerson Hancock, RHP 2-2, 6.10 ERA, 61 ERA+

The 24 year old Hancock is the Mariners fifth starter. In just his second season, his ERA is inflated by a bad start in Milwaukee on April 7th in which he allowed eight runs in 3.1 innings. Since then however he went six innings against both the Cubs and Rockies (in Colorado), allowing just three runs and eight hits over the two starts.

Hancock has a four pitch mix, using both a four seam and sinker that average about 93.4 MPH. He also throws a changeup and slider. It's notable that the D-backs drafted him in the 38th round back in 2018 but he didn't sign out of High School, choosing instead to go the University of Georgia. Three years later the Mariners took him in the first round, 6th overall of the 2020 draft.

Saturday, 6:40 P.M. PST/MST

Projected Starter: Slade Cecconi, RHP. 1-0, 3.00 ERA

Cecconi filled in for Merrill Kelly who was a last minute scratch on April 21st prior to going on the IL. Cecconi pitched a strong game giving up just two runs in six innings. While the team has not announced a starter for this game, there is no reason to assume it won't be Cecconi.

George Kirby RHP, 2-2, 5.33 ERA, 69 ERA+

Kirby had a strong season last year, going 13-10 with a 3.35 ERA, 122 ERA+. In five starts this year he has three excellent outings and two bad ones. He seems to have righted his ship however, coming off five shutout innings againwt the Rockies in Coors Field on April 21st. Prior to that he went six innings against the Reds, giving up just two runs in a win.

Sunday 1:10 P.M. PST/MST

Projected Starter : Brandon Pfaadt 1-1, 4.97 ERA

Pfaadt was cruising on April 22nd against the Cardinals with five shutout innings , allowing just one hit. Then he suddenly melted down in the 6th inning, loading the bases on three walks before giving up a two-run single. He was still in line for the win, but the Bullpen could not hold the lead. Pfaadt has made it into the 6th inning in four straight starts.

While not quite as severe as last season, the third time through the order penalty continues to be an issue for Pfaadt as his OPS against rises from .576 the first time through to .813 by the third time through the order.

Logan Gilbert RHP, 2-0, 1.87 ERA, 197 ERA+

Gilbert was already coming off two solidly above average seasons the last two years. 2022-23 combined he went 26-13, making 64 starts and threw 376 innings, posting a 3.47 ERA. So far in 2024 he's been one of the best starters in the league. Coming off 6.2 shutout innings against the Rangers his last outing, he allowed just one run in three of his other four starts.

Gilbert has a four seamer that averages 95.5 and tops out around 97. He throws a slider, a cutter, and a devastating splitter with a 56% whiff rate. Good luck.

Bullpens

The Mariners Bullpen ERA of 2.49 ranks as the third best in MLB. That's not really supported by their peripherals however as they have a 3.72 FIP and 3.76 xFIP. Their WPA, or Win Percentage added, ranks 10th best among MLB bullpens. Andres Munoz, 2.89 ERA, 3 saves, one blown, is the primary closer. Set up man Ryne Stanek has a 2.00 ERA and a couple of saves to go with his four holds. Gabe Speier is the primary left-hand matchup reliever and has allowed only one run in nine innings of work.

The D-backs are hopeful that Paul Sewald can come back from his Oblique injury soon to stabilize their Shaky bullpen. In fact he's a possibility to pitch in this series, having recently pitched in a rehab game in Triple-A. Sewald was traded by the Mariners to the D-backs last August, and was very popular in Seattle.

The D-backs bullpen ranks 20th in MLB with a 4.19 ERA and ranks 27th in WPA, with late and close situations being a real problem. Kevin Ginkel (3.48 ERA) has four saves but has blown two. Right-hander Scott McGough, (5.56 ERA) has a team worst three losses. The D-backs bullpen is tied for the second most losses in MLB with eight.

Offense

The Mariners team OPS+ of 97 is slightly below league average 100, and ranks 19th in MLB. Their best hitters so far have been former Diamondback Josh Rojas and catcher Cal Raleigh. Rojas is batting .315 with a .846 OPS, 152 OPS+ in 60 PA. Raleigh is hitting .257 with six homers and a .833 OPS, 145 OPS+. Julio Rodriguez got off to a slow start and still only has one homer, but his batting average is climbing, up to .276 now.

The Diamondbacks team OPS+ of 110 ranks 8th in the league and their 5.73 Runs per game ranks second. It's been feast or famine for Arizona however as they have scored 12 or more runs four times, but are just 5-10 in games decided by three runs or less . They're hitting just .143 in late and close situations, which is the worst in MLB

Ketel Marte is leading the team in hits and runs, batting .320 with a 157 OPS+. With three right-hand pitchers starting, expect Joc Pederson to start in all three games. He leads the team with a 1.011 OPS, 186 OPS+ in 63 PA. Seattle Native and 2023 Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll continues to slump with his batting average all the way down to .208 and just one homer on the year.