Diamondbacks Offense to Take a Step Back but Pitching Will Improve

Adding up all the projections we see a strong, but very different team in 2025

Sep 8, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Orioles pitcher Corbin Burnes (39) looks on during the first inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Reggie Hildred-Imagn Images | Reggie Hildred-Imagn Images

The Arizona Diamondbacks had arguably the best offense in baseball in 2024, leading all of MLB in runs scored with 886. They lead the second place Los Angeles Dodgers by a whopping 44 runs. The team OPS of .777 trailed the Dodgers by just .004 points.

That was offset by one of the worst pitching staffs in MLB however. The D-backs ranked 27th in ERA (4.63) and allowed the fifth most runs overall with 788.

Based on the player-by-player projections review we've just concluded here at the website, it's expected that the offense will take a step back from the lofty heights of 2024, but the pitching will improve significantly.

The below table shows the projected differences. The decrease in offense WAR of -7.4 is completely offset by the increase in pitching WAR by 7.9

D-backs 2024 actual vs. 2025 Projected | Jack Sommers

Related Content: Arizona Diamondbacks 2025 Player Projections Links Hub

The decrease in projected offense is due to both personnel factors and simple regression to the mean. The team lost power sources Christian Walker, Joc Pederson, Randal Grichuk, and Josh Bell.

Those four accounted for 66 of the team's 211 homers. The addition of Josh Naylor, who is projected to hit 25 homers, offsets some of that attrition, but obviously not all.

At the same time the 2024 team outperformed their "expected" statistics by the second-largest margin in MLB.

Their wOBA, or weighted on base average of .337 was .008 higher than their xwOBA. Only the Boston Red Sox had a bigger gap between the two.

The pitching meanwhile seemed to underperform their peripherals all year. The team's FIP, or fielding independent pitching was just 4.09, a whopping 0.53 lower than their team ERA.

That margin was also the second highest in MLB. This was especially strange, as the team's defense ranked well above average.

In short, even if Arizona had returned the exact same roster, they would be expected to post a better team ERA. When we take into account the addition of Corbin Burnes however, then the pitching staff becomes all the more potent.

Summary

In 2024 the D-backs had a +98 run differential, giving them a Pythagorean, or expected win-loss of 90-72. That was just one game better than their actual record of 89-73. Of course they fell heartbreakingly short of the postseason by just that one game.

The 2025 team as currently constructed projects to be equally as strong, but in a very different way. The pitching staff is expected to perform up to their potential, provided they enjoy better health of course, but the offense is likely to take a step back from the lofty heights of 2024.

The offseason is not over yet, and the Diamondbacks could still improve the roster further. They would still like to add a high leverage reliever, but options are dwindling there. They also would like to bring in a right-hand bat to platoon at DH and the outfield.

Randal Grichuk is still on the free agent market, as is Mark Canha and a few other potential players that might fit the bill.