Four Pivotal Players to Diamondbacks Success in 2025

Who will the D-backs be counting on the most beyond their core four superstars?

Aug 19, 2023; San Diego, California, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks catcher Gabriel Moreno (14) and relief pitcher Justin Martinez (63) celebrate after defeating the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-Imagn Images / Orlando Ramirez-Imagn Images

The Arizona Diamondbacks have a strong roster that is projected to win over 86 games and contend for a Postseason spot in 2025. As with any team, getting good health and performance from their top stars is critical to reaching their full potential.

It goes without saying that the top two position players on the roster are Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll, and the top two pitchers are Zac Gallen and Corbin Burnes. If the Diamondbacks are to make it back to the Postseason, their journey starts with good health from each of these four superstars.

They don't need all four to post near career seasons, however, they just need to stay healthy and perform to their baseline averages. Beyond that, every playoff hopeful needs contributions up and down the roster to make it to the big dance.

In this article, I take a look at the next four most pivotal players for the Diamondbacks' success in 2025.

C Gabriel Moreno

Entering his age 25 season, Moreno has already established himself as one of the premier catchers in the game. He won the NL Gold Glove for the position in his very first full season in 2024.

He threw out an astounding 39% of base stealers, leading to +24 defensive runs saved, and handled a pitching staff that went all the way to the World Series.

Moreno followed that up with a statistically lesser, but still impressive 2025. He posted +7 DRS and threw out 29% of base stealers. He's been no slouch at the plate over the last two years either, batting .276/.346/.395, .741 OPS, or 104 OPS+.

The issue for Moreno has been durability. He's started just 94 and 83 games the last two seasons. Listed at 5-foot-11, he is certainly more diminutive than that in stature, likely 5-foot-9 at most.

He's tended to get nicked up and has suffered both shoulder and thumb injuries over the last couple of years.

The D-backs would like to get at least 110 starts out of Moreno. If he can build up his durability and put fewer innings in the hands of lesser defensive options such as Jose Herrera and Adrian Del Castillo, it will likely add meaningful wins to the team's total.

DH Pavin Smith

The Diamondbacks received a tremendous boost on offense in 2024 thanks to a career year from Joc Pederson as the left-handed DH. He posted a .908 OPS, 151 OPS+.

While the team can't expect to receive the same level of production from Smith in that role, they can't afford to fall all the way back to the depths of 2023, when their .678 OPS at DH ranked 27th in MLB.

Smith posted a career best slash line of .270/.348/.547, .894 OPS 2024, but it came in a small sample size of just 158 plate appearances. There was nothing flukey about these results according to the Statcast batted ball metrics, as his player page is a sea of red.

Smith also had a .394 xwOBA compared to a .377 actual wOBA. Posting expected stats higher than his actual stats is something that he has done throughout his career.

But Smith's career batting line in 1,252 PA is just .244/.323/.400, .723 OPS, and his projection is an underwhelming .743. The D-backs desperately need him to outperform that projection, and post at least an .800 OPS or higher to avoid losing significant ground at the DH spot.

High-Leverage Reliever Justin Martinez

Justin Martinez enjoyed an outstanding rookie season in many ways. He posted a 2.48 ERA backed up by a 2.59 FIP. His electric 100 MPH four-seamer and sinker were complimented by a devastating splitter/slider combo. He struck out 91 batters in 72.2 innings as a result.

Still just 23 years old, the issue for Martinez, as is the case for many young fireballers at this age, is control and consistency. Martinez walked 36 batters (4.5/9), hit two more, and uncorked eight wild pitches.

Oftentimes he would come into a game in a tight situation, and immediately start to spray the ball. Frequent and well timed mound visits were often required to help him regain composure and find the strike zone again.

He converted eight of 10 save opportunities, mostly in August and early September, but struggled sometimes in tie games and extra innings.

Martinez was removed from the closer's role by mid September, and the team has spent the offseason looking for a new closer, indicating they are not yet confident to turn the ninth inning over to Martinez.

But he will be needed in numerous high leverage setup situations throughout the year, and eventually needs to claim the closer's role for good.

Starting Pitcher Merrill Kelly

Beyond Gallen and Burnes, the Diamondbacks have five starting pitcher options at the moment, including Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt, Ryne Nelson and Jordan Montgomery.

From a long-term perspective, getting good seasons from any or all of Rodriguez, Pfaadt, and Nelson are of course important. Rodriguez still has three years left on his contract and the young pre-arbitration pitchers still have years of control.

But the Diamondbacks were at their best when they had Kelly matching Gallen start for start at the top of the rotation the last few years. That was interrupted due to a shoulder injury suffered by Kelly in April of last year that caused him to miss four months.

In nine starts after his return, Kelly posted a 4.96 ERA and a 4.49 FIP.

While he will be a free agent following the 2025 season, the Diamondbacks will be the best version of themselves if Kelly can return from a full offseason of rest to resume his role as "Merrill the Mainstay."

If the Arizona Diamondbacks receive good health and solid performance from the above four players, combined with their core of superstar players at the top, they will be a force to be reckoned with in the National League in 2025.

Related Content

Pavin Smith is Primed for a Breakout with the Diamondbacks