Pavin Smith is Primed for a Breakout with the Diamondbacks

After an impressive 2024 campaign Smith will step into a larger role with the D-backs

Sep 8, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks left fielder Pavin Smith (26) hits a grand slam home run during the third inning against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Next up in our series of breaking down the Arizona Diamondbacks' 2025 projections is Pavin Smith. The long-time prospect found his way in 2024 and could look to build off the momentum with a big 2025 campaign.

Pavin Smith projection | Alex D'Agostino | Diamondbacks On SI

Why Pavin Smith could outperform projections

Smith has been a highly touted prospect in the Diamondbacks' system since his original 7th overall selection in the 2017 MLB draft. Things haven't quite panned out for the lefty bat as his lack of defense and rocky start in the big leagues left him bouncing between the minor and major leagues.

2024 finally saw Smith hit his stride. In a 60-game sample he belted 9 home runs, posting an .896 OPS and a 145 OPS+. While his numbers came in a small sample size, being split primarily from April through May and July through September, the metrics were incredible.

Projections finally see him taking the leap into a consistent player for the first time since 2021. As the Diamondbacks' roster construction currently stands, Smith is in line to win the club's DH job, as well as filling in at first base and in the outfield.

While what Smith did in 2024 may not have taken place over a full season sample, it was impressive enough to draw attention. There is real reason to believe that it may not have been a fluke.

His underlying numbers (such as his impressive 11.4% walk rate and other batting peripherals) are solid and well above average.

A 2024 xERA of .293 compared to a .270 batting average shows he can hit far better than the projected average of .248, but his projections see his batting numbers drop across the board in 2025.

Particularly his slugging percentage is being undervalued at a projected .409 in 2025. After being recalled by the D-backs on August 19th, Smith went on to slug .595 with a .972 OPS until season's end.

Over this stretch he was one of baseball's best part-time hitters, and was a big part of the team's power production while Christian Walker sat on the injured list.

The low projections leave Smith plenty of room to blow them out of the water, finally proving that he belongs in the major leagues.

Why Pavin Smith may underperform projections

As a primarily part-time player throughout his still-young career, Smith has enjoyed the luxury of tailored at-bats.

While this has not always been the case, it is true that coming off the bench has been able to aid Smith, allowing him to hit in the spots where he may best succeed. In a full-time role this would no longer be the case.

Jumping from 158 at-bats in 2024 to a projected 431 in 2025 is a big deal. This has a varying effect on different hitters, and the lefty will be no different.

While projections are very low on the idea of a true breakout for Smith in 2025, they are in favor of more power from the DH. They see him setting a career high 14 home runs, something that the Diamondbacks' lineup desperately needs.

Power, being a key part of DH production, will need to become a bigger part of Smith's game. In 2024 he managed to tie his 2022 home run total with 9, but in nearly 120 fewer plate appearances.

It is clear that he is making strides, but is this enough to reach the summit of 14 long balls next season? The answer likely lies in how much he is affected by the additional exposure.

Summary

Smith had a fantastic 2024 season and managed to show off some exciting parts of his game. In return, he will likely find himself in a much larger role in 2025, which will increase his workload significantly.

There he will not only get more consistent at-bats and be able to find a rhythm, but pitchers will more thoroughly game plan against the lefty, and he will find himself far more exposed. This is a big step in Smith's journey to proving himself as a big leaguer, and success next season will take him a long way.

While some fans may not be as confident as others in the validity of Smith's 2024 success, it will be up to him to prove that his incredible slug was not just a shimmer in the pan, but rather some untapped gold that is ready to be found.

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