Ryne Nelson Makes Return to D-backs' Rotation vs Mets

The Diamondbacks' young right-hander will make his first start of the 2025 season.

Arizona Diamondbacks Ryne Nelson (19) pitches against the Baltimore Orioles at Chase Field on April 7, 2025. | Joe Rondone/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Arizona Diamondbacks' trudge through their gauntlet of National League East teams continues, with a three-game set against the New York Mets begins at Chase Field on Monday. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m.

The Diamondbacks are a dismal 13-30 against the Mets since 2018, but recently took two of three from New York on the road to open the month of May — their first series win in Queens since 2017.

But for Monday's matchup, Arizona will have a familiar face on the mound. Though this start would have belonged to Corbin Burnes, the ace right-hander is dealing with shoulder inflammation, and will skip this turn through the rotation.

Imaging on Burnes' shoulder came back clean, and the D-backs do seem confident that he can make his next start. But in Burnes' place Monday night, it will be right-hander Ryne Nelson getting the start.

Pitching Matchup

RHP Ryne Nelson (5.82 ERA)

The 27-year-old right-hander found himself the odd man out of Arizona's starting rotation to open 2025, making seven appearances in long relief. In those 17.0 innings, he collected a 5.82 ERA, but a shockingly low 2.19 FIP and 3.35 xERA suggest he's pitched much better than the results.

He has 20 strikeouts against four walks in that span, and his upper-90s fastball has provided a +4 Run Value for the Diamondbacks.

Nelson was one of the D-backs' best arms in 2024, as he fired off right Quality Starts from July onward. Post All-Star Break, Nelson threw to a 3.23 ERA over 64 innings and held opponents to a .223 average against him.

He has been the victim of some hard contact, but if Nelson can limit his base traffic, he can cruise deep into games, even pitching into the eighth inning twice in 2024.

Nelson has, however, struggled against the Mets in his young career. He has a 7.64 ERA in three starts, though his most recent start against New York saw him toss 6.1 innings while allowing only two earned runs. He also pitched four scoreless innings in long relief on April 29 of this year.

RHP Griffin Canning (2.61 ERA)

The Mets signed righty Griffin Canning away from the Angels on a one-year deal, and the 28-year-old has been quite sharp in the early goings. He's pitched to a 2.61 ERA and 3.27 FIP over six starts, but he's only completed the sixth inning one time.

Canning throws a six-pitch mix, but primarily utilizes his mid-90s four-seam, along with a hard changeup and slider. He also has a sinker, cutter and curve in his back pocket.

He's been hit relatively hard in 2025 — which catapults his xERA to 3.93, over a full run above his actual ERA. But he's also collected ground balls at an immense 51.7% clip. The righty does have some punchout ability, but mainly just focuses on keeping the ball in the yard, surrendering just 0.58 home runs per nine innings.

He has, however, walked 14 batters in 31.0 innings, and has a 5.09 career ERA against Arizona. He gave up five and four runs respectively facing the D-backs in 2023 and 2024.

Lineups

Happy to be home <3https://t.co/k9Xjx1tKgF pic.twitter.com/h2eQxW8a0u

— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) May 5, 2025

With star second baseman Ketel Marte back from his hamstring injury, the D-backs' lineup construction returns to a bit more stable state. Corbin Carroll will lead off against the right-hander Canning, with Marte backing him up in the two-hole.

Marte has just one single in his seven at-bats since his return, but it's hard to imagine the All-Star won't make his mark on a game very soon, if not on Monday. He has yet to record a home run on the season, but is hitting .303 with a .425 on-base percentage despite the minor slump.

From there, it's the usual cast, with Alek Thomas continuing to get majority looks in center field. Pavin Smith will DH and bat third, but the lefty slugger has not recorded a hit since April 29.

As for the Mets, keeping the likes of Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto and Pete Alonso down will be a tough task, as always. New York also will see the return of infielder Brett Baty, who was optioned to Triple-A a mere 10 days prior after slumping to begin the year.

Bullpen Note

The Diamondbacks' bullpen will be extremely taxed after a rough go on Sunday. Arizona's relief corp surrendered runs in four of the five innings they pitched in. Shelby Miller threw 22 pitches and blew the save. Kevin Ginkel threw 19, Juan Morillo threw 10, Jalen Beeks threw 20 and got the save in extras, while Ryan Thompson threw 11, delivering the only scoreless relief frame.

That leaves only left-handers Jose Castillo and Tommy Henry. While some of the above-mentioned names could be available, and could pitch back-to-back on Monday, it could be a difficult game for the D-backs if they need to maintain a tight lead late.

Nelson's propensity to go deep into games will be crucial in his first start, as Arizona won't have many options for middle inning relief, and if they do ask for a back-to-back from their higher-leverage arms, the results may not align with their ability.

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