The Biggest Risers and Fallers in the Diamondbacks' Farm System

With the reveal of the new Top 40 Diamondbacks Prospects here on Arizona Diamondbacks On SI, one of the main topics is players whose performances caused them to rise or fall in the rankings. As stated on the rankings, each prospect is ranked based on how strong a career we project them to have with the Diamondbacks in their initial six control years.

Here are the biggest risers and fallers in the organization, and what caused their rankings to change drastically.

Biggest Risers

Starting pitchers Cristian Mena (No. 5), Dylan Ray (No. 7), Daniel Eagen (No. 10), and Spencer Giesting (No. 12) have all made significant leaps and could be a huge part of the team's rotation three to four seasons down the road. Ray and Giesting have both been promoted to Triple-A Reno on June 3rd.

Mena has seen his velocity jump more in the 94-97 MPH range this season, allowing him to be more aggressive with the fastball in the strike zone. The next step in his development is to consistently jump ahead of hitters, as he has the secondary stuff to put them away. The sweeper and curveball are both excellent chase pitches, resulting in plenty of swing-and-miss.

He's proven that he's ready to face major league hitters and will get his opportunity soon. He was called up on June 1 and has performed well in two appearances this season. He could see opportunities to pitch as a long reliever or starter, depending on their rotation plans in the wake of Corbin Burnes' injury.

Ray altered his delivery to be closer to what it was in his 2023 breakout year. The results speak for themselves, as he pitched to a 2.03 ERA and five consecutive Quality Starts in May. His velocity is more in the mid-90s and his slider has gotten sharper. While he still profiles as a back-of-the-rotation starter, the reliever risk is lower due to a more effective arsenal.

Eagen has come on strong in his first year in the organization with a 2.50 ERA and 2.68 FIP over 39.1 innings. He relies on a four-seam fastball in the 93-95 MPH range and a big-breaking curveball, but has been working on a slider and splitter to round out his arsenal.

He's missing bats at an exceptional level, with a 34.8% strikeout rate that ranks third in the Northwest League (min. 30 IP). Amongst 22-year-old starters in the league, he has the top strikeout rate by nearly 8%.

While his walk rate is 13.0%, it's deceptively high due to a three-start stretch in which he had 15 walks. In his other five starts, he's only walked six hitters in total. That's why farm director Chris Slivka believes that Eagen has the strike-throwing ability of a starter.

Giesting continues to put up solid strikeout (24.4%) and walk (7.9%) rates in the tougher run environment of Amarillo and the Texas League. That has translated to a 3.79 ERA and a 3.95 FIP. His slider is his best swing-and-miss pitch in his arsenal.

Both he and Ray are Rule 5 eligible after the season, and they are almost certain to be added to the 40-man roster in November following their midseason promotion. We should get publicly available Statcast data on the two starters as they get more starts in Triple-A.

Biggest Fallers

Druw Jones has taken the toughest fall, going from No. 7 in the preseason to No. 22 in the midseason update. The hope was after playing a full season in 2024 that he'd take the next step. That hasn't happened, as the power in his swing has completely evaporated and now carries significant bust risk.

Jones is hitting .244 with a .617 OPS with Hillsboro. His ISO has dropped to .047, with his only extra-base hits being nine doubles in 193 at-bats. While he's drawing walks at an 11% clip, the high strikeout rate and lack of power are huge concerns for the former No. 2 overall pick.

Yassel Soler has not hit in his second stint with Visalia. He's hitting under .200 with a sub-.600 OPS for the season. His 20.9% strikeout rate and 8.7% walk rate aren't disqualifying, so it comes down to quality of contact. Soler has a .230 BABIP, a result of a very low 16.7% line drive rate.

Soler is still young for the level at 19 years old, so how he rebounds in the second half of the season could determine his viability as a prospect. He still ranks as the No. 23 prospect in the organization despite the rough start.

Jorge Barrosa's drop has less to do with his player performance but more about the organization's direction. With the team giving opportunities to Alek Thomas, Tim Tawa, and Jake McCarthy in center field, Barrosa has been limited to emergency call-ups only in the past two seasons.

Barrosa has good speed and range in center field, so he should still be useful to a major league club as a fourth or fifth outfielder. However, that club will likely not be the Diamondbacks, as he's clearly down the organization's depth chart.

The combination of Barrosa and Jones taking steep falls has hurt the Diamondbacks' long-term outlook in center field. The former has exhausted all three of his options and could be on the way out of the organization.