D-backs Jordan Lawlar Must Stay Healthy to Beat His Projection

The organization's number one prospect has raked whenever he plays, but he hasn't played enough.

Oct 21, 2023; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks shortstop Jordan Lawlar (10) before game five of the NLCS for the 2023 MLB playoffs against the Philadelphia Phillies at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images | Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images

Continuing our series delving into Arizona Diamondbacks player projections, we arrive at Jordan Lawlar, the top rated organizational prospect in the system.

The table below highlights the composite average of ZiPS and Steamer projections, prorated to our estimates of Lawlar's likely playing time.

Jordan Lawlar, Shortstop, RHB, Age 22

Jordan Lawlar 2025 projection | Jack Sommers

The above projection for a .235 batting average and .673 OPS may seem modest for a player that has a .893 career minor league OPS. But due to a litany of injuries he has a very short track record in the minor leagues and just a 34-plate appearance cup of coffee in the majors in 2023. This projection therefore is heavily regressed to the mean of the average rookie ballplayer of his age.

Why Lawlar may outperform this projection

Despite the short track record, Lawlar has performed like a number one draft pick should whenever he is able to play. In 2022 he had a 138 wRC+ and he followed that up with a 126 wRC+ in 2023, leading to what turned out to be a premature call-up.

wRC+ is weighted runs created, set to a scale where 100 equals average. In other words he was roughly 38% and 26% better than a league average hitter in those two minor league seasons. For a player that already showed his defense at shortstop is major league caliber during his call-up in 2023, that makes him a legitimate top prospect, worth of his ranking.

In 2024 he was limited to just 58 plate appearances in Reno, and another 46 rehab assignment PA in the complex league and AA Amarillo for a total of 104. It wasn't much of a sample, but he hit .318 with a .900 OPS and a 132 wRC+.

With his pedigree and this level of minor league performance, it stands to reason that Lawlar is ready to break out in 2025.

Why Lawlar might underperform his projections

The elephant in the room with Lawlar is why does he keep getting hurt. Lawlar was taken in the first round with the number six pick overall in the 2021 draft. But in just his second game as a professional he suffered a serious shoulder injury that required surgery, wiping out the rest of his season.

In 2022 he missed time during the regular season with a rib injury, and then suffered broken scapula on a hit by pitch in the Arizona Fall League.

Then in 2024 he tore thumb ligaments at the end of spring training, requiring surgery. Shortly after he returned he suffered a hamstring injury, which caused him to miss another three weeks. Just two game into his rehab assignment in the complex league, he re-injured the hamstring, missing eight more weeks.

This run of bad luck has put a serious dent in his development. To try to make up for some of the lost time, Lawlar went to the Dominican Republic to play winter league ball for Licey. He got off to a good start, but tailed off, ultimately hitting just .237 with a .670 OPS.

Summary

Jordan Lawlar is still a highly-rated prospect and when he can gets on the field, his bonafides are on display more often than not. But he still needs more time to develop his offensive game a bit more before he is fully ready to take on major league pitching.

At the same time, the shortstop position is occupied by Geraldo Perdomo. The team has also had him play third base and second base, but those positions are taken up by veterans Eugenio Suarez and Ketel Marte. Ultimately, Lawlar is blocked.

Mike Hazen has said on multiple occasions that Lawlar needs to play every day. Having him come up and play in a utility role, getting just one or two starts a week is not in the team's plans, at least at the moment. When he comes up, he should be in more or less a full time role.

Where and when that comes is anybody's guess. But there is no rush. Lawlar is just 22 years old, and getting a few months more experience in AAA, honing his game and waiting for his opportunity will benefit him and the ballclub in both the short and long term.

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