Brandon Pfaadt is a Breakout Candidate for the Diamondbacks

The confidence that exudes from Arizona Diamondbacks starter Brandon Pfaadt is unmistakable. He is a pitcher and a person who is extremely comfortable in his skin.

While the results via traditional metrics might not sparkle, there is no doubt when he is on he can be one of the most effective pitchers on the team.

Pfaadt recovered from a rough start to his major league career in early and mid summer in 2023, making improvements in the second half that resulted in a breakout Postseason performance. He carried that over into 2024, leading the Diamondbacks in innings pitched with 181.2.

At times he looked as if he was ready to advance to "Ace" status. From April 17 through July 21, a span of 17 starts, he threw 104 innings and posted a 3.30 ERA. That was supported by a tremendous 94/24 strikeout to walk ratio, resulting in a 3.43 FIP (Fielding independent pitching).

FIP measures the things the pitcher has most control over, meaning walks, strikeouts, and the number of home runs he allows. A similar metric is xERA, or expected ERA.

This also starts with actual walks and strikeouts, and then adds in batted ball metrics such as exit velocity and launch angle.

Things got a lot rougher after July 21 however. Over his final 12 starts, Pfaadt posted an ERA of 6.60, despite a 3.71 FIP and a 74/15 strikeout to walk ratio in 61 innings.

That near three-run gap between ERA and FIP is an outlier for any pitcher, as the FIP is a strong indication he was pitching much better than his results. The .394 BABIP (Batting avg on balls in play) was a strong indication of bad luck too.

For his full season line, he had a an ERA of 4.71 despite a FIP of 3.61 and an xERA of 3.78. Pfaadt isn't about to use bad luck as an excuse however.

"A lot of people would say it's bad luck," he said. "But at the end of the day, you take all the expected stuff out of the picture and that doesn't really even matter. It would be nice to be around those numbers for me personally, but at the end of the day, just giving up the least amount of runs possible is our goal."

That's a healthy attitude for a pitcher to have. Truly at the end of the day all he can do is keep trying to improve as a pitcher and find consistency.

While these metrics may help us better understand how to evaluate and project his future performance, they're not going to help him perfect his craft. And it's in those improvements that forecast-busting events occur.

"I think it's just having that consistency and staying on the attack mode, being comfortable of what I'm trying to do and execute it. I think at the end of the day, that's all it is. I think as we keep progressing and getting repetitions under our belt, I think we'll be all right."

In 2024 Pfaadt's pitch usage broke down to 33% four-seam fastball, 27% sweeper, 22% sinker, 11% changeup, and just 5% curveball.

His famed sweeper had just a .215 batting average against, but he gave up 13 of his 24 homers on the pitch despite using it barely more than a quarter of the time.

Location was an issue perhaps, but it wasn't just that. Sometimes hitters seemed to be sitting on the sweeper when he was in a breaking ball count.

In an effort to give hitters a different look and keep them off balance, Pfaadt is working on the curveball this spring.

"We're tinkering with the curveball a little bit, just using that more. Everything else is the same. You can never stop getting better at the things you have in your back pocket. I think the curveball is going to play pretty well with all those other pitches," Pfaadt said.

An improved curveball would definitely go a long way towards keeping hitters off the sweeper, and would play well with is sinker too.

Of course Pfaadt finds himself in a competition this spring for his rotation spot. The Diamondbacks have Corbin Burnes and Zac Gallen out in front of what is shaping up to be an excellent rotation if all are healthy.

Veterans Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Jordan Montgomery are all looking to bounce back from injured and down seasons.

Meanwhile Ryne Nelson was the most effective pitcher over the second half of the 2024 season as well. The Diamondbacks have made it clear that a six-man rotation is not in the cards.

They're not worried about having to make decisions at this point. It's rare that a team gets through spring training with all of their rotation intact and ready for opening day.

Although there is stiff competition, Pfaadt is a strong candidate to get 30 starts in 2025. Even without any improvements to his underlying peripherals, simple regression to the mean could result in Pfaadt getting his ERA down under 4.00.

If he's able to implement some improvements with the curve and find greater consistency, then a breakout to an ERA in the 3.00-3.25 range is definitely on the table.

Stay tuned to all things Arizona Diamondbacks On SI as we take you through spring training and into the season.

Brandon Pfaadt is a Breakout Candidate for the Diamondbacks

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