Insider Makes Bold Prediction About Corbin Burnes' Future With D-backs

The return of ace right-hander Corbin Burnes, which happened this past week, comes with plenty of questions for the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The most pressing question, of course, is his performance down the stretch. When Burnes made his official return debut against the Kansas City Royals, he was relatively effective, but still saw a sizable decrease in fastball velocity and was only able to muscle his way through three (scoreless) innings.

But after the initial evaluation period is over — and Burnes has contributed whatever he's capable of contributing to the Diamondbacks during their late season playoff push — there remains a large, looming question: will Burnes, who has an opt-out in his contract after this season ends, choose to stay in Arizona, or will he test the open market?

According to ESPN insider Jeff Passan, there is one very likely outcome with regard to this dilemma. Here's what Passan had to say.

Jeff Passan on Corbin Burnes' opt-out

Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Corbin Burnes during spring training at Salt River Fields on March 19, 2026, near Scottsdale. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Passan did not seem to carry much doubt with his prediction. He expects Burnes to remain with the Diamondbacks, rather than opting out of his franchise record six-year, $210 million contract.

"Burnes returned from Tommy John surgery that had sidelined him for 15 months and threw three scoreless innings Tuesday. He could go the rest of the year without giving up a run and still not opt out of the four years and $140 million left on his deal," Passan writes. "Will he opt out: No."

Depending on one's outlook on Burnes' future success, this outcome could either be excellent news or an expensive, long-term burden.

But is that really the most likely outcome?

Passan's Corbin Burnes prediction likely correct

Sep 8, 2026; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Corbin Burnes (39) delivers a pitch against the Kansas City Royals during the first inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

In truth, it does feel like an exceptionally long shot for Burnes to opt out of his contract. He has only made 11 starts with the Diamondbacks, missing over half of 2025 and almost all of 2026 due to Tommy John surgery and a subsequent shoulder injury suffered during rehab.

Barring an extreme surge by the former Cy Young winner, and a deep postseason run, his market would likely not materialize to a degree that would allow him to sign a deal worth more or spanning as many years as the four remaining on his D-backs contract.

Burnes also cited wanting to live in Arizona — where he and his family have made their home — full time when he signed his initial deal.

If the right-hander is able to return to (or close to) full form, that outcome could benefit all parties involved. But considering he's 31 and coming off two significant injuries, the version of Burnes that earned that $210 million deal might not resurface, which could ultimately end up becoming more of a financial burden than a boost to Arizona's staff.

It's far too early to begin making that assessment, though.

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