Four Burning Questions for Yankees After Aaron Judge Injury

The injury to Aaron Judge leaves the Yankees with plenty of questions. We’ll try to provide some possible answers here.

Judge will be sidelined indefinitely due to a stress fracture in his right rib. | Brad Penner-Imagn Images

In a punch to the collective guts of everyone involved with the Yankees organization, back-to-back American League MVP Aaron Judge is out indefinitely with a stress fracture in his right rib.

The Yankees captain on Friday told reporters he believes he first suffered the injury while diving in the outfield during an April 24-26 series against the Astros, adding that he played through the pain until it became unbearable.

Judge will be re-imaged in four to six weeks, at which point the Yankees will determine the next steps for the hulking slugger. The injury to Judge leaves the Yankees with plenty of questions. We’ll try to provide some possible answers here.

How will the Yankees replace a back-to-back AL MVP in the lineup?

I’ll give you the short answer: they won’t. Since 2022, Judge owns a 203 OPS+, meaning he’s been 103% better than what a league average hitter would have produced, and has taken home three AL MVP awards during that span. There is simply no hitter in the Yankee lineup—and perhaps in baseball as a whole—who could step in and replicate Judge’s production.

That said, there are several hitters who will need to perform more like the back of their baseball card says they should be performing in the next several weeks.

Trent Grisham

After belting a career-best 34 home runs while posting a 124 OPS+ last season, Grisham has scuffled to the tune of a 101 OPS+. Fortunately, Grisham’s batted ball data, particularly his quality of contact and plate discipline metrics, closely resemble those of last year’s. Plus, Grisham has been among the better hitters in baseball since the calendar flipped from his abysmal April to a much-improved May and start to June. The latter trend continuing during Judge’s absence would go a long way.

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Chisholm, in a contract year, has been one of the worst hitters in baseball. And it’s not difficult to see why. He’s not hitting the ball as hard as he did last year, and he’s swinging and missing far too often to do damage at the dish. Whether it’s teammate Giancarlo Stanton’s pants continuing to provide good juju or a matter of Chisholm needing to make an adjustment to his mechanics or approach, something will need to change because the Yankees simply expect more out of someone who was a 30-30 guy just last year.

Austin Wells

Coming up in the minors, Wells was looked at as a plus-offensive catcher who would be below average behind the plate. He’s somehow morphed into the opposite. Someone who watched him club 13 homers, rack up 2.6 Wins Above Replacement and finish third in the AL Rookie of the Year vote in 2024 wouldn’t even recognize the player who has produced a 54 wRC+, which would rank fourth-worst in all of baseball. Wells may not ever be the hitter the Yankees thought he would become, but he isn’t—and simply can’t be—this poor at the plate.

In addition to these three, the Yankees will also need more out of Ryan McMahon, Jose Caballero and Anthony Volpe, as well as continued stellar contributions from Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger and Paul Goldschmidt. Better production in a second MLB stint from lefty-swinging Judge clone Spencer Jones, who went 3-for-3 with an RBI in Friday's loss to the Red Sox, couldn't hurt. The approaching returns of Giancarlo Stanton and Jasson Dominguez will also help, which brings us to our next question.

What will the Yankees outfield alignment look like without Judge?

As of right now, probably similar to how it looked on Friday night, with Bellinger in left field, Grisham in center and the recently-called up Spencer Jones in right field. That’s the best defensive alignment the Yankees can currently play, and the one that least upsets the apple cart.

Things could look slightly different when Stanton and Dominguez, each of whom took live batting practice earlier this past week, return to action. Stanton played right field for the Yankees last year when Judge was sidelined due to a flexor strain in his elbow, and the former has been vocal about his desire to see time in the grass in the past. But seeing extensive time in the outfield might not be in Stanton’s best interest, given that he’s 36 and coming off of a calf strain. Dominguez has only played left field for the Yankees in the past two seasons, meaning the club is likely to continue such an arrangement. Such a move could shift Bellinger to center or right field, spots where he has provided plus-defense this season.

New York could also turn to utility players in Caballero and Max Schuemann in right field, as they did during the Yankees’ series against the Guardians to begin June.

Are the Yankees in trouble in the AL East race?

Look, there is no getting around this: the Yankees are going to be worse for the wear without Judge, particularly on offense. We have roughly four years of data which proves that point.

With Judge in the lineup since 2022

Note: Data courtesy of Bryan Hoch and MLB Network

Runs Per Game	Winning Percentage
5.0	.592

Without Judge in the lineup since 2022

Runs Per Game	Winning Percentage
3.8	.424

Those numbers are bleak. Yet, to say the Yankees could be in trouble feels like an overreaction.

The likes of the Orioles, Blue Jays and Red Sox sport run differentials in the negative and have yet to resemble contenders, even in a weak AL. Sure, one of those teams could begin to turn things around in the time Judge is sidelined, but it’s hard to believe such a turnaround would be enough to overtake the Yankees.

New York may have trouble chasing down the AL East-leading Rays while Judge is on the Injured List. Then again, Tampa Bay is just 3-7 in its last 10 games and is clinging to a 1.5-game lead over the Yankees.

The Yankees, just as they have in the past, are likely to struggle at times offensively without Judge. One difference from past years is that New York boasts as deep a starting pitching staff as any in the Judge era, meaning the club may be able to offset the slugger’s absence simply from a run prevention standpoint, given they’re also a plus-defensive team.

Even without Judge, the Yankees are likely to remain firmly in the hunt for the division title.

Will the Judge injury affect the Yankees’ trade deadline plans?

That depends. The Yankees, sporting a strong lineup and starting pitching staff but a bullpen that has blown the sixth-most saves in baseball, were likely to scour the market for relief pitching upgrades before anything else anyway. But with offensive question marks on the left side of the infield and at catcher, it’s possible New York could look to upgrade around Judge with the hope that the pieces around Judge are improved when he returns.

Should the likes of Jones, Dominguez and Grisham fail to produce as the Yankees expect, perhaps New York looks to the outfield market ahead of the trade deadline to import a cheap veteran in a platoon capacity, an approach we’ve seen them take in the past.

Overall, the Judge injury shouldn’t affect the Yankees’ deadline plans too much, given their depth in the outfield. But the deadline is still a little less than two months away.

In other words—and in an unsatisfying answer that could apply to any of these above questions—we’ll see.

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