Juan Soto Signing Wouldn't Boost San Francisco Giants Title Odds Much

The San Francisco Giants aren’t thought to be part of the Juan Soto sweepstakes any longer, as he has begun narrowing down his list of potential suitors.

Based on reports that have circulated, it sounds as if the New York Yankees, New York Mets and Boston Red Sox remain in the race. The Los Angeles Dodgers could still be involved and some reports have stated that the Toronto Blue Jays have been eliminated from the running.

Despite that, the Giants have been included in a piece that Bradford Dootlittle of ESPN put together highlighting how much of an impact Soto would have on prospective suitors should he elect to join them.

Of course, the four-time All-Star would improve virtually any lineup that he was inserted into. At the very least he is worth about five wins, with some variables impacting the number one way or another for certain clubs.

Doolittle shared why San Francisco is included in this exercise despite not being mentioned in reports.

“The Giants, because they typify teams that should arguably be more aggressive in the Soto market (and others) but haven't shown much indication that is going to happen.”

Out of the eight teams that were used for the piece, San Francisco has the lowest Soto Score of 93.21.

To calculate the score, Doolittle used projections and current rosters to create baseline forecasts for each team pursuing Soto, both with him and without him. After that, 1,000 simulations were run, using the 2025 schedule for each team, to achieve an impact score, which Doolittle called the "Soto score."

Also included in the score were factors like increases in win projection, postseason odds, pennant odds and World Series odds. An average score was considered to be 100.

For context, the highest score was earned by the Yankees with 107.69, as there is a sizable gap between the top and bottom-ranked squads.

The Giants’ postseason odds would increase dramatically if they were able to land Soto, with 22.2 percent. The only team higher is the Kansas City Royals, with an increase of 25.1 percent.

But, the one thing this exercise showed is just how far away San Francisco is from contending. Even if they added the superstar right fielder their championship odds would increase by 0.7 percent.

They are the only club whose title chances didn’t improve by at least 1.8 percent, as new president of baseball operations Buster Posey will have his work cut out for him. He would love to spend some money to help get the franchise he led to three World Series back to prominent levels, but it doesn’t seem like he will be given the chance to do that.

As a result, they will continue lagging behind the Dodgers, who have lapped them several times at this point. That gap will not shrink until the Giants begin operating as a big market franchise.