Why Projected Giants Leadoff Hitter Might Bat Lower in Lineup

The belief this spring training is that Luis Arráez would hit leadoff for the San Francisco Giants. Here’s why he might not.

The San Francisco Giants logo on the sleeve of a baseball jersey. | Katie Stratman-Imagn Images

The opportunity to sign Luis Arráez was simply too good for the San Francisco Giants to pass up when it happened just weeks before spring training.

A three-time batting champion for $12 million on a one-year deal? That should be worth the money, even if his numbers dipped just a bit in 2025.

Arráez is playing for his native Venezuela in the World Baseball Classic, but the Giants are keeping tabs on him. For the most part this spring, the veteran has batted leadoff in the order. Search for a lineup projection for opening day and he usually tops the order.

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But, he might hit elsewhere for reasons that make sense given what the Giants value this season.

Why Luis Arráez May Not Bat Leadoff

San Francisco Giants infielder Luis Arraez. | Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images

New Giants hitting coach Hunter Mense was with the Toronto Blue Jays last season, one of the best hitting teams in baseball. That lineup blended contact and power, with one of the best sluggers in the game in Vladimir Guerrero Jr. It would make perfect sense for someone with Arráez’s ability to get on base to be the leadoff hitter, especially with Rafael Devers, Willy Adames and Matt Chapman behind him.

But, as Mense told NBC Sports Bay Area recently, he sees Arráez as a hitter that can bat lower in the order and help with runners in scoring position, even if he doesn’t have traditional slug.

"I believe that his best attribute is being able to drive in runs," Mense said. "He gets a lot of hits and being able to score guys from third base with two outs or score guys from second base with two outs oftentimes requires a hit. I just want him in those situations.”

Arráez isn’t going to drive in runs like Devers or Adames. His career high was 69 in 2023 with Miami. His 162-game average for RBI is 59. Mense’s point is more about having Arráez in a position where he can make contact and put a ball in play to score a run. Baseball’s rules changes opened up baserunning. There is more room for players that can get to second on their own — a stolen base — and position themselves for a hit to score.

He isn’t going to steal bases. His career high is 11. But he could bring home the base stealer in the right situation. While Arráez doesn’t walk much, he also avoids strikeouts. He is the best hitter in the majors by average at .317. He won three batting titles in a row from 2022-24, including the last season in which he split the campaign between the Miami Marlins and the San Diego Padres. He’s also led the National League in hits each of the past two seasons.

He also has a lifetime on-base percentage of .363, with .320 considered average. He just happens to be coming off his worst season in OBP with .327. His .292 batting average was also a career low for a single season. Entering his age 29 season, that step back is unlikely to be a trend. He’s batted .300 or better in six of his nine MLB seasons. The Giants will likely get production no matter where he bats. The key is which spot works best.