Previewing the 2023 MLB draft class with Prospects Live's Brian Recca
Now equipped with the knowledge of the past draft classes under the Zaidi-Holmes regime, it's time to take a look at what's coming next: the 2023 draft class. Wrenzie is joined by Brian Recca, a friend of the site, a fellow SF Giants fan, and the Northeast scout for Prospects Live. Brian shares his vast wealth of information regarding the 2023 draft class, from a general overview of the class, as well as prospects that fit the demographics that the current Giants front office tends to attack come draft day.
Wrenzie: Now that the 2022 draft class has settled in, let’s look into the 2023 draft class that already looks pretty special. What do you think of this year’s draft class in general and do you think this year’s class looks better at this moment compared to the previous class during this time?
Brian: I would say that any year where you have a college hitter/pitcher duo at the top like Dylan Crews and Chase Dollander, it’s a strong draft year. You know, last year we had such an impressive crop of high school hitters that really carried the class. This year I think the college class is stronger and a bit deeper, especially at the corner positions. I’m not sure I would say this class is “better” than last year’s but I like draft classes with a lot of college depth and that certainly seems to be the case on both sides of the ball. There are a lot of distinctive profiles this year which I like to see as it enables teams to find valuable players at various stages of the draft.
Wrenzie: That sure is an overview if I’ve seen one! You mentioned that there seems to be more college depth on both sides of the ball, which should always be good. The Giants are picking in the middle of the first round so we won’t be focusing on the top-end guys. Who are the college prospects that you see at the moment that are considered as mid-first-round prospects?
Brian: I think the college side is a good place to start. The Giants have a five-year streak of selecting college players in the first round. On the position player side, they tend to target up the middle defenders with pop. I think someone like Matt Shaw makes a lot of sense, he’s a shortstop that plays at Maryland. Shaw hit 22 bombs this spring, had an OPS over 1.000 on the Cape this summer, and was named the league MVP. We have him ranked 14th overall at Prospects Live but he could play his way into a top-10 selection this spring.
A few other college bats that fit the Giants mold are middle infielder Tommy Troy of Stanford, outfielder Jack Hurley at Virginia Tech, and Travis Honeyman, a personal favorite of mine, who is an outfielder at Boston College. Troy is very quick twitch, packs a punch in his smallish frame, and has experience at second, short, and outfield. Hurley turned heads this summer after being overshadowed by Gavin Cross last year. He makes a ton of hard contact and has performed against solid competition. His one flaw might be that his approach can get away from him, but he showed improvement this summer. Honeyman is the opposite, not a ton of power like Hurley, but the plate discipline is excellent and he rarely whiffs. In 284 plate appearances between the summer and cape, Honeyman struck out only 34 times. His arm might limit him to left field long term, but he can cover ground in center and looks solid there presently.
On the mound, there’s going to be a lot of movement with this pitching group as the college season rolls on. We saw that last year when Cade Horton flew up boards right at the end of the year and then guys like Gabriel Hughes and Cooper Hjerpe moved up incrementally as the season progressed.
I think the name that the Giants are going to be tied to a lot this spring is Paul Skenes, a two-way player at LSU. Skenes was at Air Force but transferred to LSU and is expected to start games on the weekends and DH when he isn’t pitching. He projects better as an arm, with incredible physicality and a fastball into the upper 90s. There may be a lot of untapped potential with Skenes since he hasn’t focused on pitching exclusively to date. Obviously, the Giants dipped into the two-way player well last year with Reggie Crawford so it’s not unreasonable to think Skenes would be valued highly.
Cade Kuehler is a righty from Campbell that could make a lot of sense if he continues harnessing his arsenal this spring. He’s not considered a mid-first-rounder yet, but I think Oklahoma State righty Juaron Watts-Brown is going to get there this spring. JWB is ranked 29th on the PLive board and has all the tools to go higher than that. Great athlete with size and four distinct pitches that all flash the ability to mix well together. If the command takes a step forward against Big 12 opponents, he’ll get plenty of buzz from teams.
Wrenzie: That was as in-depth as they come! The Giants have not been targeting prep talent on the first day of the draft but this could happen this year given the top of the prep pitching class seems to happily sit in the mid-first-round range. We’ve seen over the past couple of years that teams who don’t shy away from taking prep talent in the mid-first-round could bear substantial fruit like Jordan Walker, Andrew Painter, and Grayson Rodriguez just to name a few. Who are the prospects that could likely be a target for the Giants if ever they go against their usual M.O.?
I think a prep player at the Giant's pick makes a lot of sense this year. There are several prep players projected anywhere from 15th-40th overall that could entice the Giants. I think Arjun Nimmala, a shortstop from Florida, is the type of player the Giants should be looking to acquire. He’s big, projectable, and super explosive on both sides of the ball. The power is ahead of the hit tool, but he’s shown some hittability that you can project. He might outgrow shortstop but Nimmala would likely be an asset defensively at third. He’s also one of the youngest players in the draft and won’t turn 18 until after the draft. Beyond Nimmala, Colt Emerson, a shortstop from Ohio, has such a sweet, easy swing. He covers the whole plate and can impact the ball anywhere in the zone. Kevin McGonigle from Pennsylvania is another shortstop who has a long track record of hitting against good competition. Both Emerson and McGonigle might not be long term shortstops, but their bats are easy to dream on.
One last name I’ll throw out there is Cooper Pratt, a shortstop from Mississippi. I saw Pratt live a few months ago and he was really impressive. Pratt has an excellent projection at 6’4-190 and just seems to hit everything hard. He was on a tear towards the end of the showcase season and did well against good velocity. Pratt isn’t a premium athlete and is likely a third baseman or corner outfielder long-term, but that bat can be special once he grows into his frame.
There are a ton of prep arms that could distinguish themselves this spring and find their way to the Giants. I don’t think I’d predict that happening given the organization’s previous drafts, but as you mentioned, taking a prep arm that falls like a Painter or Daniel Espino can return a ton of value.
I think Thomas White, a lefty from Massachusetts, is someone that could go in the middle of the 1st round. He’s probably my favorite high school arm in the class and is someone I really want to see live this spring. There aren’t a lot of prep lefties who move the way White does and the ball explodes out of the hand. He flashes three pitches but the fastball quality is ahead of his curve and changeup at this point. The upside is tremendous but we’ll need to see how he looks this spring. One other prep arm that I think would interest the Giants is Liam Peterson, a righty from Florida. Peterson checks a lot of scouting boxes with decent present velocity (91-94, t95) a three-pitch mix, and an athletic, compact delivery. What really stands out with Peterson is his ability to manipulate and command spin. Peterson may end up having the best slider in this class, and it’s no secret that the Giants are always on the hunt for killer slide pieces.
Alex Mooney steals second base. (2022)
Ron Schloerb/Cape Cod Times / USA TODAY NETWORK
Wrenzie: It’s good to know that there are a ton of good prospects that the Giants could consider and turn their unfortunate track record around at the top of their drafts during the Michael Holmes era. However, we both know that they are excellent at drafting and developing their Day Two and Three talent with Kyle Harrison, Vaun Brown, Landen Roupp, and Grant McCray just to name a few. Let’s test your knowledge about the 2023 draft, Brian. Who are the prospects that are mostly viewed as a Day 2 talent that you think can be a hit once they enter a pro player development program? Also, are there any prep prospects that might be considered as top-75 to top-150 talent that fit the Giants' preference for athletes on either side of the ball?
Brian: The Giants' ability to obtain value later on during the draft doesn't get talked about enough. I went through my own personal draft database and picked out a bunch of players.
I thought shortstop Alex Mooney was a first-round talent as a prep, and still think he could get there in time. His spring at Duke and summer on the Cape were both mixed, but it was his first season at the college level. He's a real shortstop with speed and some raw juice. Mooney will be a draft-eligible sophomore and he's currently ranked in the 3rd round area. I think he'll take a big step forward this spring and he would be great value on day two of the draft.
Matthew Etzel took the Draft League by storm last year and turned down pro offers during the draft. Etzel is now at Southern Miss and could turn his decision to remain at school into a significant payday. Etzel is a bat-to-ball machine with a top-of-the-order profile who has the tools to stick in center long term. Big sleeper heading into the college season.
Jace Bohrofen didn’t have a ton of success during his first year with Arkansas but I think the performance he showed on the Cape (.281/.379/.544) is more indicative of the type of player he can be. Bohrofen has a right field profile and has made improvements in his ability to handle spin at the plate. There’s a lot of projection remaining with Bohrofen, especially in the power department.
One prep bat that has really captivated me at this early stage is Raffaele Velazquez. He’s a prepster from Southern California who is primarily a catcher now but might need to rotate to the outfield or first base in pro ball. Prospects Live has Velazquez ranked 77th overall, which I believe would be great value. These catcher/first base profiles tend to get passed on during the draft as teams would prefer to see how things play out in college before buying in. But Velazquez’s maturity at the plate and his ability to barrel balls all over the zone might force a team’s hand. He’s one of my favorite prep bats in the class.
For pitchers, Owen Wild is someone that could really blossom this spring. The righty was overshadowed a bit at Gonzaga behind their three-headed monster of Hughes, Vrieling, and Kempner but was equally effective (3.03 ERA, 74.1 IP, 70 H, 83 K, 24 BB). He possesses a high-quality fastball in the low 90s that can get into the mid-90s on occasion and a dastardly changeup that complements his fastball. He commands both pitches well but he didn’t show a consistent third pitch last year. He’s flirted with a cutter and a slurvy breaking ball. If either of those pitches takes off, Wild may climb into the 2-3 round territory.
Josh Knoth is the king of spin in the northeast, with his curveball regularly getting over 3,000 RPMs. It’s not just the spin either, Knoth’s breaker has a great vertical shape and he’s already adept at using it effectively. His fastball has been up to 95 MPH and will sit in the low 90s, but it doesn’t have bat-missing shape presently. I think this is a pitcher that would thrive in the right organization. The Giants have had their fair share of success stories with tinkering fastballs such as Logan Webb. Knoth is physical and a great athlete with a history of throwing strikes.
I feel like I have to include California righty Justin Lee in here. He’s a metric darling with a low release, riding fastball, and feel for two secondaries. You’ll probably hear him compared to Owen Murphy quite a bit and it’s not impossible that Lee rises up boards the way Murphy did last spring.
Wrenzie: This has already been a very fun one, Brian. To cap it all off, who are the 2023 draft prospects that you have not mentioned yet that are lower on most rankings but you are otherwise high on?
Brian: Cooper Ingle gets glossed over by evaluators a little too much for my taste. Sure, he’s unlikely to stick at catcher as a pro and the power isn’t immense, but he does enough damage to keep pitchers honest. Ingle has an extremely polished approach and should be an on-base machine at the next level. Getting a guy like that on day two would be good value and perhaps the Giants' development team can coax a bit more over-the-fence power from Ingle.
I also think LuJjames “Gino’ Groover of NC State is slept on a little bit. He’s a fantastic hitter who is going to hit for more in-game power this spring. He was primarily a first baseman last spring, mostly out of necessity, so I think a lot of people assume that’s his long-term position. Groover is going to be NC State’s starting third baseman this spring and I believe he’s going to impress a lot of people with his ability at the hot corner. I would not be surprised if he finds his way into the first round.
