Cleveland Baseball Insider

Are the Guardians facing a must-win scenario on Thursday against the Tigers?

The Cleveland Guardians sit atop the AL Central division and still have some work to do in order to clinch a postseason spot.
Steve Kubitza|
Sep 24, 2025; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; The Cleveland Guardians celebrate a win over the Detroit Tigers at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-Imagn Images
Sep 24, 2025; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; The Cleveland Guardians celebrate a win over the Detroit Tigers at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-Imagn Images | David Richard-Imagn Images

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Cleveland Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians appear to have mentally broken the Detroit Tigers. Yet as every lifelong Cleveland sports fan knows, the task is not yet complete.

Yes, the Guardians have climbed all the way back from a 15.5-game deficit to overtake the Tigers in the AL Central. And yes, the Guardians do hold a one-game lead over Detroit along with the head-to-head tiebreaker. But there are still four games left, and that is a long time in professional baseball.

So, is Thursday's series finale against the Tigers a "must-win" game? Let's look at both sides of that question.

In terms of simply clinching a playoff spot, the answer is no. Luckily, the Guardians have a fallback option in case the division falls back to Detroit. That comes with the third and final Wild Card spot. That spot is currently held by the Tigers, with the scuffling Houston Astros sitting one game behind. Both the Guardians and the Tigers hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Astros.

Let's say the Guardians do struggle over the final four games. The Astros would have to win at least three of their final four to jump Cleveland. If the Guardians were to win just one game, the Astros would have to win out. Thus, the Guardians are still favorites to at least make the postseason even if they lose Thursday.

However, let's look at the other side of the equation. A loss Thursday does give Cleveland and Detroit identical records heading into the final three games of the season. While the Tigers do indeed look demoralized, they can still put themself right back in the hunt for the division with a win.

Given the Astros' struggles, the current playoff picture would have Cleveland hosting Detroit for a best-of-three Wild Card series next week. If the Guardians were to lose Thursday and end up losing the division crown, they would likely drop to that No. 6 spot and have to travel to Detroit for a best-of-three.

Of course, the Guardians have dominated the Tigers over the past two weeks. Tigers fans felt confident with Tarik Skubal on the mound Tuesday, only for him to seemingly forget the basics of pitching and fielding in a single inning. Then came Wednesday's game where the Tigers managed to score a total of one run.

But baseball is a funny game, and it's clear the Cleveland crowd provides some serious magic both for the Guardians and against the Tigers. So while technically Thursday's game is not a do-or-die scenario for Cleveland, a win sure would make things less stressful heading into the final series of the season against the Texas Rangers.

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Steve Kubitza
STEVE KUBITZA

Steve is a lifelong Cleveland sports fan who proudly wears his Guardians, Browns, and Cavs gear in his current home of Santa Barbara. He has covered Cleveland sports online for the past decade and is still waiting for the Browns to draft a QB who signs a second contract in town.

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