Guardians Have Made Up Significant Ground In MLB Playoff Race

Remember when the Cleveland Guardians dropped 10-straight games earlier this year?

Remember when they lost one of their up-and-coming starters and their superstar closer to paid leave amid an investigation?

Remember when Cleveland sat under .500 for weeks as the bats showed little to no life?

While all of those situations were true at the time, they’re in the past. The Guardians' season is far from over, and they’ve made up significant ground in the playoff race, both in the wild-card and the division.

American League Wild-Card Picture

Entering Tuesday night’s action, the Guardians were just 1.0 game out of the last wild-card spot, which the New York Yankees own.

FanGraphs’ playoff projection model currently gives the Guardians a 22.2% chance of clinching a Wild-Card berth and a 25.9% chance of reaching the playoffs.

Kyle Manzardo (C) is greeted by third baseman José Ramírez (L) and outfielder Steven Kwan (38). — Jul 13, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Cleveland Guardians first base Kyle Manzardo (C) is greeted by third baseman José Ramírez (L) and outfielder Steven Kwan (38) after hits a three-run home run against the Chicago White Sox during the sixth inning at Rate Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images | David Banks-Imagn Images

Those odds still may seem small, but considering that on July 12, Fangraphs gave the Guardians a 9.2%chance to reach the postseason and an 8.7% chance of snagging a wild-card spot, Cleveland is undoubtedly headed in the right direction.

However, unlike last year when the Guardians jumped out to a big lead in the playoff race, Cleveland can’t afford to stumble even for one week. They own an American League-best 15-7 record since the All-Star Break and must keep playing at an elite level if they want to play October baseball.

Guardians Making AL Central Race Interesting

The Detroit Tigers were in a position to run away with the American League Central, and they’re still the clear favorite to come out on top of the division when the season ends. However, the Guardians certainly aren’t going to make it easy on their division rival.

Cleveland was 15.5 games back of Detroit on July 6. Now, the Tigers’ lead is just 6.0 games, and FanGraphs gives the Guardians a 3.9% chance of catching up and winning the division.

Steven Kwan (38) beats Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Tarik Skubal (29) to first base for a hit — Jul 6, 2025; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians left fielder Steven Kwan (38) beats Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Tarik Skubal (29) to first base for a it during the fourth inning at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn Images | Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

Again, this may seem small, but considering where they were at one point this season, Cleveland is clearly making up significant ground.

On July 1, Fangraphs gave the Guardians a 1.2% chance of overtaking the Tigers. That wasn’t even the second-highest in the division, with the Minnesota Twins ahead of Cleveland. Now, the Twins are out of the picture after their trade deadline sale, and the Tigers have a 13-17 record over their last 30 games.

A window is opening for the Guards.

To make matters even more intriguing, the Guardians still have six more games against the Tigers this year, all of them coming in the final two weeks of the season.

If Cleveland can stay even within four games of Detroit until the middle of September, then they’ll put themselves in a good spot to possibly steal the AL Central crown and reach the playoffs.

American League Wild-Card Picture

Guardians Making AL Central Race Interesting

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