Guardians' Playoff Hopes Could Come Down To One Key Question

It could come down to the very last week of the regular season to determine which teams are in the MLB Playoffs and which teams will be heading home, waiting for another year for a chance to win the World Series.

After looking completely out of the postseason picture in the middle of June, the Cleveland Guardians are right back in the thick of the playoff race.

However, Cleveland’s hopes of playing October baseball could come down to one question: Can the offense continue to perform at league-average, or better, for the rest of the season?

On the season, the Guardians have a .228/.300/.378 slash line with a .679 OPS. Not necessarily the numbers you’d expect from a team battling for one of the final wild-card spots and in striking distance of the division lead.

Jul 12, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Cleveland Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez (11) and shortstop Brayan Rocchio (4) celebrate after defeating the Chicago White Sox at Rate Field. Mandatory Credit: Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images | Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images

The Guardians have primarily put themselves in this position because their offense has been much better since the All-Star Break. Since the Midsummer Classic, the Guardians have a .748 OPS and a 109 wRC+ (fourth-best in the American League).

It’s been during that stretch that the Guardians have made up significant ground in the playoff race.

Still, the offense could be performing better, and the reason Cleveland is still alive in the postseason hunt is because of the pitching, despite some adversity and losing two key players amid a gambling investigation.

At the same time that the offense has started to pick it up, the pitching has remained strong, and the true strength of this team. Over the last month, Cleveland’s starters have had a 4.12 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. In that same stretch, the bullpen has posted a 3.22 ERA and 1.05 WHIP.

(Both of those numbers look even better if you take out Wednesday night’s blowout 13-4 loss to the Miami Marlins.)

Even when the offense hasn't been clicking this year, it’s been the pitching that has kept them in the game.

Aug 5, 2025; New York City, New York, USA; The Cleveland Guardians celebrate the victory against the New York Mets after the ninth inning at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images | Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

During Cleveland’s 10-game losing streak at the end of June into July, the pitching staff gave the Guardians a chance to win each game. The Guardians’ rotation had a 3.95 ERA, while the offense posted a mere .166 batting average and .498 OPS.

So, Cleveland has a pretty good understanding of what their pitching is going to look like.

It’s going to be up to the offense to keep swinging the bat well and scoring runs to give this team an opportunity to reach the playoffs for the second straight season.

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