Brady's Spin: Tuesday Night is Perfect Example of My Fear with Luis Castillo and Seattle Mariners

Castillo struggled against the Cincinnati Reds, going just 4.1 innings and giving up six earned runs. Unfortunately, this kind of uneven production just might be par for the course at this point.

Seattle Mariners pitcher Luis Castillo delivers a pitch in the first inning of the MLB game between Cincinnati Reds and Seattle Mariners at at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit on April 15. | Albert Cesare/USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images

Let me start by making this abundantly clear. Luis Castillo of the Seattle Mariners still has good stuff. Even at the age of 32, Castillo still has good stuff - and sometimes, that stuff will be excellent. And sometimes, that stuff will be knocked around like we saw on Tuesday night against the Cincinnati Reds.

Castillo suffered the loss against his old mates, giving up six earned runs on seven hits over just 4.1 innings. He walked four and only struck out three, needing 95 pitches to get through those 4.1 innings.

And I'm thinking that is just kind of par for the course with Castillo at this stage in his career.

Look, he still throws 94-96 MPH, he still has a good slider and gets good movement on his two-seamer and changeup. There will be days where he's economical and carves through a lineup like he did in a seven-inning gem against the Detroit Tigers on April 2nd.

And other times, he'll struggle. His stuff is still good, but it's diminished. It's harder to finish off batters when that happens, and when you can't finish guys off, more guys make contact. More contact = more balls in play = more hits = more opportunities for runs.

Less ability to strike guys out = more deep counts = higher pitch count = more fatigue = more mistakes and more early exits. Notice that Castillo has failed to go more than five innings in three of his four starts and notice that he's needed 102 pitches and 95 pitches in his last two starts (5.0 innings and 4.1).

Simply put, it's just harder. And it's also extra hard when you're having a hard time throwing strikes. If more contact is going to lead to more hits and more runs, you can't do the offense any favors, which Castillo did with his four walks on Tuesday.

If you don't believe me, listen to some of the science behind it. We spoke to Nick Pollack of Pitcher List earlier this offseason on the "Refuse to Lose" podcast:

Castillo will make his next start in Toronto over the weekend.

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NEW PODCAST IS OUT! Brady is back for another episode of "Refuse to Lose," where he discusses the series sweep over the Texas Rangers and where the M's are at now. Furthermore, he talks about the promotion of Ben Williamson and what the plan might be for him. Also, former M's star Mike Cameron joins the show to talk about the team, his career, the 2001 season and more. And we hear from Pat Dillon, the radio voice of the Everett AquaSox, as he talks about Jurrangelo Cijntje, Colt Emerson, Lazaro Montes and more. LISTEN HERE: