Marlins Star Pitcher Tabbed as Bounce Back Candidate in 2026
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The story of much of Miami Marlins' Spring Training will be pitching. After trading away Edward Cabrera and David Weathers this past offseason, the focus is now on young, largely unproven arms to fill the void.
And so the early days of camp have offered encouraging signs from prospect Robby Snelling and expectant starter Max Meyer, while raising some concern over the early showing from Eury Pérez.
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But let's be clear here: the success or failure of the Marlins rotation will ultimately hinge on one man: 2022 NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara.
Despite a down year that saw Alcantara go 11-12 with a 5.36 ERA, expectations are high that the 30-year-old still has enough juice left to return to the form that saw him post a sub-4.00 ERA in each season from 2018 through to 2022. With Cabrera and Weathers gone, he remains one of the few experienced options Miami has to rely on. In fact, MLB.com highlighted the righty as one of their top-10 bounce back candidates for the upcoming season.
Why Alcantara's Bounce Back is Critical for the Marlins
While the Marlins and president of baseball operations Peter Bendix did well to maximize the value of Cabrera and Weathers — both of whom carry injury risks — by acquiring seven prospects, including blue chip outfielder Owen Caissie, they still lost 34 starts from their 2025 squad. Chris Paddack was signed as a free agent, but the rotation will likely be filled out with unproven arms, such as Meyer, Pérez and Braxton Garrett.
Alcantara is the fulcrum of Miami's starting staff. Now further removed from his 2024 Tommy John surgery, he is projected by FanGraphs to pitch to a 4.08 ERA while posting a 2.7 WAR over 188 innings. Though not quite Cy Young-caliber numbers, a campaign in line with what is forecast for the Dominican Republic native would offer much-needed stability atop the Marlins' rotation.
Much of that optimistic forecast stems from Alcantara's solid second half of the 2025 season. He recorded a 3.13 ERA over his final 12 starts, suggesting a return to form in the aftermath of his surgery.
That upward second half trend had psychological benefits too, as Alcantara acknowledged that he has entered this spring feeling better about himself.
“A lot of confidence,” he said to MLB.com, regarding his mental state heading into the 2026 season. “I think more confident than last year, but I always still believe in myself."
Alcantara will get an early opportunity to prove that he is back in form, when he joins the Dominican side at the upcoming World Baseball Classic. If that is, indeed, the first step in a return to form for the two-time All-Star, then Miami could get a jolt to their playoff hopes. Or, at the very least, a coveted trade asset to dangle.
