Why Marlins Draft Pick Jacob Berry May End up Failing to Make Majors
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When the Miami Marlins made their Rule 5 prospects decisions on Tuesday, one name didn’t come up — third baseman Jacob Berry.
The No. 6 overall pick in the 2022 MLB draft, Berry was eligible because he was drafted out of college and had been in the minor leagues for four years. At that point, the Marlins either had to move him to the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 draft or expose him to next month’s selection process at the MLB winter meetings.
There is no guarantee that amy team will take Berry. Rules specify he would need to be moved to their 40-man roster if selected. Berry’s body of work suggests it may not be worth picking him.
The switch-hitting third baseman has a lifetime slash of .244/.316/.379 with 31 home runs and 193 RBI. At a premium power position, he’s only hit 10 or more home runs in one season. With Triple-A Jacksonville this season, he only hit eight. History suggests his chances of making the Majors with any team have dropped significantly because he wasn’t protected.
Jacob Berry’s Dwindling MLB Hopes
Baseball America (subscription required) broke down the 10 first-round picks that were eligible for the Rule 5 draft and were not protected and it was the most left unprotected in the past decade. The overall rate of first-round picks making the MLB roster or being protected from the Rule 5 draft in their first year of eligibility is 79.6%. The percentage this year was 63%.
Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper wrote that protecting a prospect in his first year of Rule 5 eligibility is a clear indication of the franchise’s faith in that player. But it also indicates just how hard it will be for those first-round picks who aren’t protected to make the Majors someday. Per Cooper:
For the first-round picks left unprotected, the odds are stacked heavily against them having successful MLB careers. Of 63 first-rounders not added to 40-man rosters over the years, the overwhelming majority never reach the majors, and those who do generally have very modest careers.
It doesn’t bode well for Berry, who might benefit from a change of scenery after four years in the system. His slash with the Jumbo Shrimp was the best of his four-year career — .261/.348/.394. But it didn’t get the 24-year-old LSU product any closer to a Major League call-up. Perhaps he could push Connor Norby at third base in spring training. Norby only hit eight home runs last year. But Berry would have to prove that there’s more power in his bat than he’s shown to this point.
