Breaking down the Mets' current positioning in the NL Wild Card race

The Mets may have lost in Detroit on Wednesday, but they remain in a very strong position to reach the postseason for the third time in four years.

Sep 2, 2025; Detroit, Michigan, USA; New York Mets first base Pete Alonso (20) hits a solo home run in the first inning off of Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Sawyer Gibson-Long (66) at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: David Reginek-Imagn Images | David Reginek-Imagn Images

The New York Mets have a well-earned off day on Thursday after playing 16 games in a row at a critical juncture of the season. Even though they went just 9-7 in those games, the Mets enter the final stretch of the regular season in a strong position to make the postseason.

The Mets will head into their weekend series against the Reds four games up on the Giants for the final NL Wild Card spot pic.twitter.com/yTsHAJygd1

— SNY Mets (@SNY_Mets) September 4, 2025

The remainder of the Mets' current 10-game road trip goes to Cincinnati and Philadelphia, putting New York in a position to further consolidate their vice grip on at least a Wild Card spot in the National League. Reaching the postseason would mark the third time the Mets have made the playoffs in the past four years, which would be a first for the franchise.

The Blue Jays have defeated the Reds 13-9.

The Mets will enter their weekend series in Cincinnati with a 5.0 game lead over the Reds for the final NL Wild Card spot. pic.twitter.com/13QRqSscHM

— SNY Mets (@SNY_Mets) September 4, 2025

Yesterday's loss in Detroit dropped the Mets' postseason odds slightly, but they still enter their series with the Reds with a 94.9% chance to clinch a playoff berth. Winning two out of three against Cincinnati, who won a series in New York back in July, would secure a split of the season series, but the Mets would likely wrap up a tiebreaker due to their better record against their own division.

Read More: Analyst touts Mets' Juan Soto as NL MVP candidate

The first tiebreaker after the season series for a tie between two teams for a postseason spot is their record against teams in their own division, a standard that applies even to teams in two different divisions. The Mets are currently 23-19 against teams in the National League East while the Reds are 17-22 against NL Central foes, giving New York a big edge there. Winning two of three against the Reds would move the Mets' lead over them to six games, which would essentially be seven with the tiebreaker factored in.

The Giants held on to beat the Rockies in Colorado and are now in 4th place in the NL Wild Card race, trailing the Mets by 4.0 games.

San Francisco is 10-1 in their last 11 games. pic.twitter.com/Np82UXspLK

— SNY Mets (@SNY_Mets) September 4, 2025

The other team in pursuit of the Mets' playoff spot is the San Francisco Giants, who have won 10 of 11 to climb within four games of them in the standings. That figure is also a bit deceptive since the Mets hold a tiebreaker over San Francisco with a 4-2 edge in the season series, turning that four-game deficit into essentially a five-game one with three and a half weeks to go.

The Mets Remain In Strong Position To Reach The Postseason

Despite some past trauma that has fans online frequently assuming the worst will happen, the Mets have done enough good work to all but wrap up their postseason spot with a good run over the next few weeks.

A good trick to figure out playoff math is to assume a team will play .500 baseball the rest of the way and see what it would take for the team's chasing them to catch up. The Mets have played slightly above .500 baseball for the past two weeks, and assuming they maintain that pace over the final 22 games would mean a 12-10 record, carrying them to an 87-75 mark to finish the regular season.

With tiebreakers in hand against both of the teams chasing them, the Mets would need to be passed entirely to lose out on a Wild Card spot. The Reds, who have lost seven of their past 10 and with a brutal schedule remaining, are currently 70-70 and would need to go 18-4 over their final 22 games to beat an 87-win Mets pace.

The Giants are in a slightly better spot than the Reds, needing to go 17-5 over their final 22 games to pass an 87-win Mets team, but they still have seven games left with the Los Angeles Dodgers and another six with the St. Louis Cardinals, who are right behind them in the Wild Card standings.

The Mets are actually closer to catching the San Diego Padres, who they trail by one game for the second Wild Card spot, than to getting caught by either Cincinnati or San Francisco. There is also still a possibility the NL East could come back into play if the Mets win 3 of 4 in Philadelphia next week, so any doom posting about the Mets missing the playoffs is largely attention-seeking nonsense according to the math.