Mets Have a Big Reason to Be Trade Deadline Sellers That's Flying Under the Radar

It's something worth thinking about.

The Mets have plenty of reasons to sell at the 2026 MLB trade deadline, including one that few people are talking about. | Brad Penner-Imagn Images

The Mets are once again in a free fall after losing back-to-back series against the Cubs and Phillies, putting an unofficial end to their 2026 postseason hopes before June ends. After a solid stretch of playing around a .600 winning percentage baseball that seemingly ended a week or so ago, and the hopes of some offensive pieces returning, the bottom absolutely fell out on this team, and each loss feels more embarrassing than the last.

With their season taking on a new tone and new direction, the Mets need to shift their focus to ensuring the future of their team remains strong and gives them a chance of a quick rebound in the playoff picture. Beyond being sellers at the 2026 trading deadline, President of Baseball Operations David Stearns and his team should turn their attention a year ahead to the 2027 MLB Draft, in which the Mets could hold a very high selection.

How high, exactly, will depend on the draft lottery that takes place during the 2026 Winter Meetings. Considering that they have the highest payroll in baseball, the Mets are set to face luxury tax penalties once again in 2027, which includes their draft selection sliding back 10 slots.

If they get a pick in a specific range, however, the Mets don't face any draft penalties at all.

The Mets need a top-six selection in the 2027 MLB Draft to avoid sliding back in the order as a luxury tax penalty

Due to the luxury tax penalty rules in the latest MLB-MLBPA CBA, the Mets need to finish with a top-six draft selection to avoid their draft pick sliding back 10 slots. The sixth spot in the cutoff to not have their selection penalized for their league-leading payroll, and they would be the first team to qualify for that protection, as no other team has been in their luxury tax predicament with such poor on-field play yet.

The MLB's luxury tax penalty rules give the Mets every reason to sell off their pieces at the deadline. | Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

According to Tankathon, the Mets entered play on Thursday with a 63.2% chance of finishing in the protected top-six spots, which comes with an 8.72% chance of reaching the top overall selection. The Rockies are the current clear-cut favorite for the worst record in the league, but they are followed by a jumble of five teams that all have 46 or 47 losses, of which the Mets are part.

If the Mets continue to slip, their chances at a top selection get better and better. Under the MLB's draft lottery system, the three worst teams in the league all own a 19.19% chance of getting the top pick and an 87.9% chance of landing in the top six, which would be exactly what the Mets should be looking for.

As New York prepares to sell off pieces following their trade of David Peterson, it would be easy to assume that a larger exodus will follow out of Queens. Shedding off talent will only help the Mets' chances of securing this pick, and there is no question that a top-six selection would help kickstart the Mets' rebuild.

With nothing left to play for in 2026, this needs to be Stearns's priority.