Mets' Starting Pitcher Wisely Deemed X-Factor for This Season

Will a starting pitcher make or break the New York Mets in 2026?

Jul 13, 2022; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; A detailed view of a New York Mets hat and glove in the dugout against the Atlanta Braves in the eighth inning at Truist Park. | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

With pitchers and catchers set to report soon for the New York Mets, all eyes will be on what they hope is going to be an improved starting rotation. 

Coming into the winter, one of the top goals for the Mets was to improve a pitching staff that really let them down in the second half of 2025. With both injuries and poor performances, New York went from having one of the best rotations in the early part of the year to one of the worst in the second half.

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The struggles of the rotation ultimately became the main reason why the Mets missed the playoffs in 2025, and changes undoubtedly needed to happen to improve the unit. While New York will be hoping for some of their young arms to develop and contribute for a full season, they also went out and added Freddy Peralta in a trade with the Milwaukee Brewers to be their ace.

Even though it is going to be Peralta who leads this rotation in 2026, the Mets do have another pitcher who was a key contributor for them in 2024, but missed a lot of time in 2025 due to injury.

Sean Manaea Can Be the 'X-Factor' That Pushes the Mets Over the Top

New York Mets starting pitcher Sean Manaea | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

In a February 2 article, Joel Reuter of Bleacher Report made predictions for each team's starting rotation ahead of Opening Day in March. When it came to the Mets, he predicted that left-handed pitcher Sean Manaea is going to be the X-factor in the team's rotation this year.

The selection of Manaea to be the X-factor for the rotation makes a ton of sense because the success of this unit could really hinge on what he can do. In 2024, he was the best pitcher on the staff, riding a brilliant second half to total a 12-6 record and 3.47 ERA in 181 innings pitched. Manaea's performance earned him a new $75 million contract over three years.

1/12/2024 Sean Manaea signs a two-year deal worth $28 million with the Mets. In his first season in Queens, Manaea posted a 3.47 ERA in 32 starts. After adjusting his arm angle, he went 10-2 with a 3.09 ERA in his final 12 starts. pic.twitter.com/xMnjRrgyQD

— This Day in Mets History (@NYMhistory) January 12, 2026

Last year, he came into the campaign considered to be the top guy in the rotation but was injured for most of the season, dealing with an oblique strain and elbow issues. When Manaea did take the mound, he was ineffective with a 2-4 record and 5.64 ERA in 12 starts. While there have been some inconsistent performances over his career, staying healthy has always been a major issue for the 34-year-old.

Along with the addition of Peralta and young arms like McLean hopefully stepping up and having great campaigns, a good year from Manaea could result in this starting rotation being really strong. The hope is that the left-hander can remain healthy in 2026, as his injuries were a main reason for those struggles last season. Overall, he is certainly a prime candidate to be an X-factor for the Mets, especially if he recaptures his 2024 form.

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