What Mets’ Pete Alonso, Edwin Diaz could draw in free agency

Pete Alonso and Edwin Diaz are the Mets' two highest-profile free agents, and one MLB insider thinks Steve Cohen will have to pay up to keep both in Flushing.

Sep 21, 2025; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso (20) hits a single against the Washington Nationals during the eighth inning at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: John Jones-Imagn Images | John Jones-Imagn Images

The New York Mets have two main priorities to sort out in free agency this winter - first baseman Pete Alonso and closer Edwin Diaz. Alonso has already announced he will opt out of his contract while Diaz hasn't made a decision quite yet, but logic would dictate he is also willing to forego the last two years and $37 million left on his deal with the hope of getting more guaranteed years on the market.

.@JoelSherman1's 3 Things I Think: Will Mets’ David Stearns get uncomfortable enough to re-sign Edwin Diaz?

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Both players are among the best at their positions on the free agent market, and a thin class could incite significant bidding wars for them. The Athletic's Jim Bowden published a piece this morning projecting potential contracts for the top 50 free agents in the class, and he has hefty values attached to both Mets on the board.

Top 50 MLB free agents for 2025-26: Contract predictions, team fits for Tucker, Schwarber, more https://t.co/CBprxXLsDP

— Jim Bowden⚾️ (@JimBowdenGM) October 27, 2025

Alonso checks in at No. 3 on Bowden's big board and is projected to receive a six-year deal worth $182 million, a hefty raise over the two-year deal worth $54 million he just opted out of. Diaz, according to Bowden, is in line for a four-year deal worth $88 million, which would increase his average salary by just over $4 million and give him guaranteed money through his age-35 season.

Bowden has Diaz rated as the 14th-best free agent in the class and the top closer on the board. The next best closer, San Diego's Robert Suarez, is rated 15th and projected to get a four-year deal worth $80 million.

Read More: Mets could lose Edwin Diaz to higher bidder in free agency

Would the Mets meet Bowden's valuations for Pete Alonso or Edwin Diaz?

While Steve Cohen has shown a tendency to make big splashes in free agency, he has made it known that he trusts the judgment of David Stearns to make baseball decisions. The Mets nearly ended up with an albatross contract for Carlos Correa when Cohen called Scott Boras on a whim after Correa's deal with the Giants fell through, but Cohen did trust his medical people not to commit $300 million to Correa over 10 years.

Stearns has shown a willingness to offer long contracts, such as last year's Juan Soto deal or a 12-year, $325 million pact to Yoshinobu Yamamoto that the Los Angeles Dodgers matched, but those two were exceptions as players hitting the market in their primes. Alonso will turn 31 in December and Diaz will turn 32 in March, so the Mets will have to carefully weigh how long they want to guarantee contracts for the pair since there is a decent shot the back end of the contracts Bowden projects age poorly.

The easiest call here would appear to be Alonso, who almost certainly won't be back if he can get six guaranteed years from another team. While Alonso is a dynamic power hitter the Mets need now, his archetype of a slug-first first baseman often ages poorly, and it would be reasonable to assume that Alonso could be forced to move to designated hitter after the first few years of the deal.

.@JoelSherman1's 3 Things I Think: If David Stearns was left to his own devices, he wouldn't bring Pete Alonso back

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— New York Post Sports (@nypostsports) October 24, 2025

Defense has never been Alonso's strong suit, so his contract value is largely based on if he is hitting close to 40 home runs and driving in well north of 100 runs a year. The Mets can live with suspect defense from Alonso if he's delivering that kind of power production, but if he trends closer to a 35/90 player, he becomes far less valuable.

Cohen himself also admitted he was frustrated with contract negotiations for Alonso last winter, which were exceedingly slow due to a subpar platform year in 2024. Agent Scott Boras is likely to slow play Alonso's market again to try and get him as many guaranteed years as possible, so it wouldn't be surprising if the Mets offered him at most a four-year deal with the ability to opt out again after two.

Diaz is a trickier case to project because he has been dominant for two of the past four years, but missed 2023 due to injury while being merely very good in 2024. Stearns is likely worried about committing to Diaz through his age-35 season, but the odds of finding an elite closer who can handle the stress of pitching in the New York market are slim.

Four years feels like the absolute limit that Stearns would offer Diaz, and this contract could come down to how much Diaz makes per year. $22 million a year seems like a reasonable bet to make, especially since the Mets will have some cost certainty with younger pitchers in their rotation, but it is up to Stearns to decide if he wants to gamble that he can replace Diaz's production in aggregate as opposed to just paying up for an elite closer.

Stearns famously traded Josh Hader in the middle of a pennant race for Milwaukee because the Brewers couldn't re-sign him, but the Mets have far more financial resources available to them. Cohen has said he wants to get below the highest levels of the luxury tax line eventually, but it remains to be seen if the prospect of losing Diaz motivates him to encourage Stearns to offer more years to the Mets' closer than he would be comfortable with.