Why David Peterson might be the odd man out in the Mets rotation

After an up-and-down 2025 season, David Peterson’s spot in the Mets rotation could hinge on their offseason moves.

Sep 17, 2025; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher David Peterson (23) delivers a pitch during the third inning against the San Diego Padres at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

The New York Mets are in a position where three rookies and multiple returning veteran starting pitchers could contend for Opening Day rotation spots in 2026. But if they land a coveted frontline arm over the winter, someone would have to be the odd man out.

In an article published Friday, SNY’s Danny Abriano listed five players the Mets could consider trading during the offseason. Among the candidates named was left-handed starter David Peterson.

“Dealing Peterson shouldn't be something the Mets explore right away. Rather, it should be viewed as an option if the starting rotation is shaping up in a way where the presence of Peterson might be superfluous,” Abriano wrote. He elaborated that this scenario would occur if New York were to add more than one external arm via trade or free agency.

Players that the Mets could consider trading this offseason (via @DannyAbriano) https://t.co/3Ji7jAiuGr pic.twitter.com/4aBrQbB9vs

— SNY (@SNYtv) October 24, 2025

Peterson, 30, is entering his final year of arbitration before he becomes eligible for free agency next winter. According to MLB Trade Rumors’ algorithm, which projects players’ salaries by accounting for playing time, position, role, statistics, and inflation, the left-hander is expected to make about $7.6 million in 2026.

A first-time All-Star in 2025, Peterson’s latest campaign was a tale of two halves. The 6-foot-6 southpaw was the Mets’ de facto ace over his first 13 outings, going 5-2 with a 2.49 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. He recorded eight quality starts during that span, including a complete-game shutout against the Washington Nationals on June 11.

First career complete game shutout for @_David_Peterson! 👏 #LGM pic.twitter.com/Km3ZN3Slid

— New York Mets (@Mets) June 12, 2025

Peterson entered the All-Star break with a 3.06 ERA through 18 starts, but once the calendar flipped to August, things began to unravel. He pitched to a 6.34 ERA and 1.61 WHIP over his final 12 outings, posting a 6.68 ERA in August and a 9.72 ERA in September. In his final start on Sept. 23, he was pulled after giving up five runs in just 1.1 innings.

During his end-of-season news conference, Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns attributed Peterson’s second-half struggles to fatigue. Peterson had never thrown more than 121 innings in a season before 2025. He nearly crossed that mark in the first half (109 innings) alone before finishing with a career-high 168.2 frames over 30 starts.

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Providing length was an issue overall for a Mets rotation that lost multiple arms to season-ending injuries in 2025. Their starters combined for only 796 innings (27th in MLB), while the two highest-paid arms in that group — Sean Manaea and Kodai Senga — struggled to perform after returning from the injured list.

Standout rookie Nolan McLean is a safe bet to make the Opening Day rotation regardless of how many starters the Mets add. Aside from him, the Mets have nearly $35 million committed annually between Manaea and Senga for the next two seasons, $13 million owed to Clay Holmes in 2026, and three additional young arms to choose from: Jonah Tong, Brandon Sproat, and Christian Scott.

Even if Peterson were to make a little more than his projected salary through arbitration, his expiring contract is much more tradable than the other veterans on the staff. Should the Mets succeed in landing an ace, further crowding the rotation, they could justify flipping the southpaw for something of value this winter as opposed to risking losing him for nothing next offseason.