Potential Washington Nationals Free Agent Target Could Get Overpaid

The Washington Nationals are heading into the offseason and free agency looking to make smart moves to help improve the franchise for years to come.

This offseason, there are a few clear needs for the Nationals. For pitching, they could use some help and veteran leadership for a young starting rotation that is still very unproven. Furthermore, after the decision to let Kyle Finnegan and Tanner Rainey walk in free agency, the bullpen could use some arms as well.

In the lineup, there aren’t as many needs, but there are a few pressing ones. At first base, Washington certainly needs to upgrade. The position has been lackluster for them for years now, and they could use some power there.

Furthermore, the other position that the Nationals might look to upgrade is at third base. While Brady House could be the answer long-term, he has yet to play in the majors and is a complete unknown at this point.

One player in free agency who has been mentioned as a potential target for the Nationals is third baseman Alex Bregman. The 30-year-old has been a big part of the success of the Houston Astros for nearly a decade, and he is the best player at his position in free agency.

While he would be a great addition on paper, Tim Kelly of Bleacher Report recently named him a player who could be overpaid this offseason and highlighted some concerns about a potential contract.

“The guess here is that Bregman won't sniff Machado in terms of years or overall dollars. Still, he's going to get paid handsomely. At B/R, we've projected a five-year, $130 million deal with a $26 million club option for the 2030 season. That's on the low end of predictions. MLB Trade Rumors predicted a seven-year, $182 million pact.”

Overpaid, to Kelly, is a player that has seen his OPS drop from .970 in 2018 and 2019 to the .795 overall OPS Bregman has had the past five seasons. In other words, those two years may have been his high point.

While the Gold Glove winner is by no means a superstar, he is an All-Star caliber player that can both hit and play the field at a high level. However, when talking about massive long-term deals, a team certainly has to take into consideration what he might be toward the tail end of his contract.

Bregman will hit 31 years old by the time next season starts, as he might only have another three years before he starts to decline. If he is going to receive a seven-year deal, the end of the contract could be an issue for Washington.

While he would certainly help the team win now, by the time the Nationals are truly ready to contend, he might be overpaid compared to what his production could be.