This One Thing Could Make or Break Career of Nationals Prospect Jackson Kent

The next wave of Washington Nationals pitchers are working their way up through the pipeline, with some of the top prospects expected to arrive in The Show before others.

One who could be called up at some point this season is left-hander Jackson Kent, who began the year with Double-A Harrisburg before getting promoted to Triple-A Rochester back on May 21. The fourth-round pick of the 2024 draft is someone who has turned heads within the organization, and it seems like only a matter of time before he's given an opportunity in the majors.

However, there is one clear concern when it comes to Kent's chances to be a successful MLB arm: lack of velocity. And if he doesn't find more consistent gas, then that could hurt his career.

Velocity Concerns Surround Jackson Kent

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"There's no reason he couldn't be up in the majors in the next couple months if he maintains his velocity (around 93 mph at the lowest, touching 95 and 96 at the highest). Still, that will be a hurdle: In his last time out, he was back around 91 to 92 mph in the later innings," reported Spencer Nusbaum of The Athletic (subscription required) when discussing Kent as a potential prospect callup for later in the year.

Kent caught the eye of the organization when he was throwing in the mid-90 mph range this spring. That newfound velocity combined with his "pitchability" made the No. 15-ranked prospect a name to watch in the early part of the season.

The lefty paid off that attention with a fantastic showing in Double-A, as he posted a 2.35 ERA across seven starts with 38 strikeouts to just eight walks in 30 2/3 innings pitched. But he's had some issues facing Triple-A batters, as his ERA with Rochester is 4.26 across eight starts with 42 strikeouts and 12 walks over 38 innings.

Consistently sitting mid-90s with his four-seamer will be important for Kent. Now that there is data on his pitches because he's competing in Triple-A, TJStats has given his heater -- which has averaged 93.7 mph -- a Stuff+ rating of 98. That is below average, and based on how the likes of Mitchell Parker, Jake Irvin and others with below-average stuff and low-90 mph fastballs have performed in the majors for Washington, there's reason to be concerned about Kent's ceiling if he can't find more velocity.

Jackson Kent Could Still Be Difference Maker

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But, as always, the situation with Kent isn't just black and white. He could still be an impactful pitcher for Washington at some point in his career even if his fastball doesn't sit in the mid-90 mph range. However, he might be moved into the bullpen instead of being used as a starter if that's the case.

Regardless, the reason why Kent could have success is because of his ability to get both right-handed and left-handed batters out. He's been impressive no matter the split, as he's held lefties to a .154 batting average and righties to one of .230 with an almost identical K rate that is around the 26.7% mark.

The 23-year-old will likely get more time in Triple-A before the Nationals call him up for his major league debut, which could come in the second half of this season. With that in mind, he's firmly someone to keep an eye on when it comes to how he fits into the future of this organization, as adding velocity could be the difference between him becoming an elite pitcher for Washington or not based on the other strengths of his game.

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