This Statistic Shockingly Suggests Orioles Have Overperformed This Year

Have the Baltimore Orioles actually done better than they should have so far this season?

Jun 21, 2025; Bronx, New York, USA; Baltimore Orioles pitcher Zach Eflin (24) heads to the dugout from the bullpen before the game against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium | John Jones-Imagn Images

Despite the questionable offseason the Baltimore Orioles had, they were still expected to compete for an AL East title and a spot in the playoffs.

While there were few who expected them to actually win a World Series championship after they lost their ace Corbin Burnes and star slugger Anthony Santander without adequately replacing them, the consensus thinking was that there is still too much talent on this roster for them not to at least be playing October baseball.

Well, almost halfway through the year, the Orioles find themselves 11 games under .500 on the outside of the playoff picture looking in having already lost their manager because of how poorly they played to start the season.

Routinely listed as one of the most disappointing teams in Major League Baseball -- if not the most -- based on how they have performed thus far, there's a chance Baltimore could actually have a worse record than do right now.

Entering play on Monday, Baseball Reference's Pythagorean Win-Loss formula -- which looks at how many runs a team has scored compared to how many they have allowed -- suggested the Orioles should have lost three more games than their record shows.

With a run differential of minus-85 -- the fourth-worst in the MLB -- this disastrous year in Baltimore could actually be a whole lot worse.

That doesn't bode well for them finding sustained success going forward, but the good news is they have performed much better in that metric since Tony Mansolino has taken over as the interim manager.

At the end of the day, the only thing that matters is what the results are in the actual win-loss column, something the Orioles have overperformed in despite all their shortcomings thus far.

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